Keysight Technologies stock forecast
The weighted target is $305.01 per share in October 2029, with bear, base and bull cases weighted 25%, 50% and 25%. It hinges on orders becoming delivered sales and cash.
Where could Keysight Technologies’s shares go?
The first weighted target is $256.81 per share in October 2027. That is a 22% loss. The final weighted target is $305.01 per share in October 2029. That is an 8% loss. The bear and bull cases each carry 25%; the base case carries 50%.
The October 2026 quarter tests the guide as supply constraints ease. Orders and book-to-bill—orders received divided by revenue—will show whether AI and optical demand, meaning demand for data carried as light through fiber connections, converts into shipments. A $700 million debt maturity in 2027, acquisition cash returns, and continued R&D investment will shape flexibility. Keysight’s value depends on AI and optical orders becoming delivered sales and cash.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 153.16 (-54 %) | 111.39 (-66 %) | 144.21 (-56 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 261.60 (-21 %) | 268.03 (-19 %) | 268.63 (-19 %) |
| Bull | 25 % | 350.88 (+6 %) | 445.70 (+35 %) | 538.59 (+63 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 256.81 (-22 %) | 273.29 (-17 %) | 305.01 (-8 %) |
What has to go right for Keysight Technologies?
The bear case starts at $1,278M and falls to $1,072M in October 2028. It recovers to $1,296M by the final date because AI demand may cool, components may delay shipments and several end markets may weaken together. The bull case starts at $1,823M, reaches $2,139M, and ends at $2,468M as orders convert into deliveries and optical and software products improve mix. Q3 orders of $2.091B exceeded revenue of $1.846B, supporting that possibility.
The base case receives 50% because it requires fewer linked assumptions: FY2026 growth converts into shipments, margins normalize near the historical average and demand remains diversified.
How much cash does Keysight Technologies really make?
Free cash flow begins with cash from operations after capital spending. It is useful because it shows what the business produces after maintaining its equipment, but it is not automatically cash available to owners. Acquisitions, debt payments, repurchases, and employee compensation still compete for it.
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,409 | 1,052 | 1,408 | 1,144 | 1,322 |
| − Capital spending | 128 | 154 | 197 | 185 | 174 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,281 | 898 | 1,211 | 959 | 1,148 |
| − Stock pay | 162 | 137 | 135 | 125 | 103 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,119 | 761 | 1,076 | 834 | 1,045 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 20.8% | 15.3% | 19.7% | 15.4% | 21.1% |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is slightly higher because it subtracts equipment spending after government incentives, while we subtract the full equipment cost.
What does an investor pay for Keysight Technologies?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 331.21 |
| Market value (calculated) | 56,386.76 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 56,298.76 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 44.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 28.9x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.0% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings number uses analysts' expected profit, so it is a forecast, not a promise.