Parker stock forecast
Parker's weighted case reaches $1,111.66 by October 2029, a 19% gain including dividends. It hinges on growth, acquisition savings and cash generation.
Where could Parker's shares be by 2029?
At October 2027, the weighted price is $873.65, an 8% loss including dividends. At October 2028, it is $971.97, a 3% gain. At October 2029, it reaches $1,111.66, a 19% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27% | 645.84 (-32%) | 588.39 (-37%) | 659.91 (-28%) |
| Base | 53% | 902.77 (-5%) | 1027.57 (+9%) | 1154.94 (+24%) |
| Bull | 20% | 1104.01 (+16%) | 1342.45 (+42%) | 1606.85 (+71%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 873.65 (-8%) | 971.97 (+3%) | 1111.66 (+19%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right for Parker, and what could go wrong?
The bear case falls to $4,850M in 2027 and $4,650M in 2028 before recovering to $4,900M. It assumes delayed industrial replenishment, slower aerospace shipments and acquisition costs before savings. The bull case reaches $6,000M in 2027 and $6,750M in 2028, then $7,540M, requiring broad recovery and faster savings. These outcomes reflect the gap between the 20.5% five-year margin average and the latest result.
How much cash does Parker really make?
Stock compensation creates a further adjustment. Parker recognized $179 million of stock-based compensation in fiscal 2026. Because that expense does not immediately consume cash, it is added back in operating cash flow. But employees receive shares or share-linked awards, which can dilute existing owners. Deducting it produces an analytical “real free cash flow” of $3,726 million.
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,364 | 3,776 | 3,384 | 2,980 | 2,441.73 |
| − Capital spending | 459 | 435 | 400 | 381 | 230.044 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,905 | 3,341 | 2,984 | 2,599 | 2,211.686 |
| − Stock pay | 179 | 159 | 155 | 143 | 137.093 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,726 | 3,182 | 2,829 | 2,456 | 2,074.593 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is almost the same as ours because the tiny differences are rounding, but our real free cash flow is lower because we subtract shares given to employees as pay.
What does an investor pay for Parker today?
At $956.32 a share on October 15, 2026, Parker trades at 33.6 times its last twelve months’ earnings. It trades at 24.3 times expected earnings for the next twelve months. The first is trailing P/E; the second is forward P/E. A $100 share costing 33 times earnings at $3 of profit can cost 24 times when expected profit rises to $4.10. The price has not become cheaper; the expected earnings have become larger. That forecast must therefore be tested, especially because the first fiscal 2027 outlook excluded recent acquisitions.
Free cash flow is the money left after running the business and maintaining its equipment. Parker’s 3.2% free-cash-flow yield says that each $100 of market value represents about $3.20 of annual cash generation, not that the investor receives $3.20. The dividend yield was only 0.8%. Parker can use the rest for acquisitions, debt repayment or repurchases. Working capital also matters: a credit sale can produce accounting profit before the customer pays, while inventory consumes cash before it is sold.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 956.32 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 33.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 24.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.1% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.8% |
What this means. The enterprise value may look too low because it leaves out the August acquisition and the later loans, even though those changed what the whole business is worth.