Sun Life stock forecast
The weighted forecast is C$109.28 in October 2027. It hinges on durable earnings.
Where could Sun Life’s shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is C$109.28 in October 2027, a +2% return including dividends. It reaches C$118.43 in October 2029, a +17% return including dividends. The bear case carries 22% probability. The base case carries 58%. The bull case carries 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 22% | 75.05 (-29%) | 73.35 (-27%) | 71.35 (-26%) |
| Base | 58% | 115.35 (+7%) | 118.92 (+14%) | 122.30 (+20%) |
| Bull | 20% | 129.34 (+20%) | 143.70 (+36%) | 158.99 (+54%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 109.28 (+2%) | 113.85 (+9%) | 118.43 (+17%) |
What has to go right for Sun Life, and what could go wrong?
The bear case requires MFS outflows, difficult U.S. dental and stop-loss claims, and acquisition demands to persist. Earnings then miss the 10% objective, capital returns weaken and the valuation derates. The shares reach C$75.05 in October 2027 and C$71.35 in October 2029. Its 22% probability reflects meaningful risks, but LICAT remains positive and the dividend record has been resilient.
The base case would remain supported if EPS grows at a high-single-digit pace, dental margins improve gradually and SLC deployment converts into fees. The bull case would gain credibility if MFS flows stabilize, Asia produces stronger new-business CSM and healthier claims support both higher earnings and sustained repurchases.
How much cash does Sun Life really make?
The specialist reconciles earnings to organic capital generation, which includes underlying income and CSM movement while allowing for dividends and required solvency capital. Segment transfers can also change presentation without changing the economics.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying net income | 4,201 | 3,856 | 3,728 | 3,369 | |
| Net income | 3,551 | 3,129 | 3,165 | 2,941 | |
| Dividend per share | 3.52 | 3.24 | 3.00 | 2.76 | 2.31 |
| Underlying ROE | 18.2% | 17.2% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
What does an investor pay for Sun Life?
At C$111.21, Sun Life costs 14.4 times its underlying annual earnings, so the investment depends on how much of those earnings can grow and reach shareholders.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 111.21 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 18.8x |
| P/E on core earnings, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.9x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.6x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.5% |