MetLife stock forecast
MetLife's weighted path is $113.98 in October 2029, or +21%. It hinges on earnings enduring.
Where could MetLife's shares be by October 2029?
MetLife’s weighted path is modestly positive: $98.82 in October 2027, or +1%, and $113.98 in October 2029, or +21%, provided earnings endure, parent liquidity remains adequate and new business is priced for risk. New Frontier targets adjusted ROE of 15%–17% through 2029 and a 100-basis-point reduction in the direct expense ratio. Management also targets $25.0 billion of company free cash flow through 2029 to support debt service, acquisitions, dividends, repurchases and a safety buffer. The forecast assigns 25% to the bear case, 55% to the base case and 20% to the bull case, with October 2029 prices ranging from $44.33 to $192.89. The November 5, 2026 results call will test earnings growth and expense control after PineBridge. RIS liability growth, Group Benefits renewals, PineBridge’s contribution, third-party MIM flows and constant-currency international results will determine whether growth becomes durable earnings. The thesis is a modest gain backed by execution, liquidity and disciplined risk pricing.
The range is much wider than the weighted path suggests. The bear case reaches $44.33 by October 2029. The bull case reaches $192.89. The probabilities are 25% for bear, 55% for base and 20% for bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 63.52 (-35 %) | 53.98 (-42 %) | 44.33 (-49 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 103.98 (+6 %) | 110.69 (+15 %) | 116.94 (+24 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 128.77 (+30 %) | 158.85 (+63 %) | 192.89 (+100 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 98.82 (+1 %) | 106.15 (+10 %) | 113.98 (+21 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a guaranteed future share price.
What has to go right for MetLife, and what could go wrong?
The bull would require stronger employer retention, controlled claims and attractive PRT returns. Persistent PineBridge clients, rising third-party flows and earnings that support larger buybacks would justify the higher multiple.
How much cash does MetLife really make?
The share count moves with buybacks, stock compensation and new share sales. MetLife’s year-end shares fell from 825.5 million in 2021 to 655.3 million in 2025, while buybacks exceeded stock-based pay throughout that period.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 4.71 | 5.94 | 1.81 | 6.30 | 7.65 |
| − Dividends declared, per diluted share (calculated) | 2.24 | 2.15 | 2.05 | 1.98 | 1.89 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 4.28 | 4.51 | 4.07 | 4.11 | 4.95 |
| = Kept, per share | 0.22 | 0.81 | |||
| = Paid out more, per share | 1.81 | 0.71 | 4.31 |
What this means. The company paid out more per share when dividends and share buybacks together exceeded its profit per share.
What does an investor pay for MetLife today?
MetLife, Inc. is the holding company above its insurance and asset-management businesses. The price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio tells investors how much they pay for each dollar of annual earnings. MetLife’s reported, core and forward P/Es differ sharply, which means the stock looks far more expensive on recent reported earnings than on adjusted or expected earnings.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 100.76 |
| Market value (calculated) | 64,031 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 19.3x |
| P/E on core earnings, last 12 months (calculated) | 10.4x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.6x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.4% |
What this means. The next twelve months price-to-earnings figure uses analysts’ profit estimate for the next twelve months, not necessarily the next financial year.