RBI stock forecast
RBI's probability-weighted price is CAD 101.82 in October 2029, including dividends. It hinges on whether RBI can restore franchisee economics.
Where could RBI's shares be in October 2029?
The probability-weighted price is CAD 95.12 in October 2027, including dividends, versus today’s CAD 101.17. It rises to CAD 99.42 in October 2028 and CAD 101.82 in October 2029, producing a 12% three-year total return. The October 2029 range is wide: CAD 60.23 in the bear case to CAD 156.95 in the bull case. The probabilities are 30% bear, 55% base and 15% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 74.14 (-23 %) | 66.71 (-27 %) | 60.23 (-30 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 100.18 (+3 %) | 106.78 (+13 %) | 109.47 (+20 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 118.54 (+21 %) | 137.87 (+44 %) | 156.95 (+67 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 95.12 (-2 %) | 99.42 (+6 %) | 101.82 (+12 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for RBI?
Base earnings increase from $1,980 million in October 2027 to $2,110 million in October 2028 and $2,234 million in October 2029. The underlying revenue path rises from $9,900 million to $10,250 million, while normalized margins widen from 20.0% to 21.8%. The first-year estimate is close to the $9.89 billion consensus revenue forecast and below the roughly $2.04 billion implied by analyst EPS expectations. The bear case declines from $1,753 million to $1,694 million as revenue stagnates and margins compress. The bull case reaches $2,426 million as Burger King gains persist, Popeyes stabilizes and refranchising removes direct operating costs. First-half adjusted net income rose 14.4%, but the latest tax benefit was partly unusual.
How much cash does RBI really make?
Cash from operations reached US$1,714 million in 2025. After US$265 million of capital spending, RBI reported free cash flow of US$1,449 million. Finance-lease principal reduces that amount because it is another cash claim.
Stock compensation requires a further adjustment. RBI adds the expense back because issuing shares uses no cash immediately, but shareholders absorb dilution unless the company later repurchases shares. Deducting US$151 million of stock pay leaves an economic free-cash-flow figure of US$1,262 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,714 | 1,503 | 1,323 | 1,490 | 1,726 |
| − Capital spending | 265 | 201 | 120 | 100 | 106 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,413 | 1,266 | 1,170 | 1,359 | 1,589 |
| − Stock pay | 151 | 172 | 194 | 136 | 102 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,262 | 1,094 | 976 | 1,223 | 1,487 |
What does an investor pay today for RBI?
The P/E ratio can make the stock look cheaper when reported profit rises for unusual reasons. RBI received tax benefits from internal reorganizations, while acquisition accounting creates charges and gains that do not neatly describe current restaurant demand. The investor therefore needs recurring earnings, not merely the profit printed in one period.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 101.17 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.9% |