Pembina dividend: yield, history and cash cover
Pembina pays $0.735 a share quarterly; in 2025, operating cash after dividends left C$1,529 million, and after capital spending and investee contributions roughly C$335 million remained. That is cash coverage after those listed needs, but the remaining dividend test also includes maintenance, preferred dividends, leases and joint-venture commitments.
How much does Pembina pay shareholders over time?
Dividends remained the dependable capital return. Buybacks peaked at $333 million in 2022 but were zero in both 2024 and 2025. Pembina later authorized purchases of up to 5% of its shares, but authorization is not spending. It also raised the quarterly dividend approximately 3.5% to $0.735 a share, adding a recurring claim on future cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Dividends paid, per share | 2.81 | 2.73 | 2.65 | 2.75 | 2.52 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.60 | 0.03 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 1.32 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 0.65 | 0.87 |
What this means. Real free cash flow per share is lower because it subtracts the value of shares given to employees as pay.
Does Pembina's cash cover its dividend?
The bridge narrows after investment. Operating cash less those dividends left C$1,529 million before capital spending. Deducting C$784 million of capital expenditure and C$410 million of contributions to equity-accounted investees left roughly C$335 million before other uses. The company’s own free-cash-flow definition also starts after dividends and includes investee contributions, so identically named measures can answer different questions.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 2,405 | 2,155 | 1,938 | 2,218 | 1,880 |
| − Dividends paid | 1,638 | 1,569 | 1,459 | 1,525 | 1,386 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 50 | 333 | 17 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 767 | 574 | 429 | 360 | 477 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 68.1% | 72.8% | 77.9% | 83.8% | 74.6% |
What this means. The second payout percentage is higher because it subtracts shares given to employees as pay before measuring what was left.
What could change Pembina's dividend?
The base dividend rises from C$3.00 to C$3.18 per share. The bear case freezes the current C$2.94 run rate, while the bull case reaches C$3.28. The latest annual dividend was C$2.82 and the stated quarterly rate implies C$2.94 annually. The base therefore continues the steady increase in the supplied history, but remains below the earnings-growth target because construction and leverage constrain distributions.
The view would move toward the bear case if marketing spreads weaken from late 2026 onward. Lower Marketing & New Ventures EBITDA would reduce both earnings and the multiple. Cedar commissioning delays or cost overruns during 2027–2029 would add debt before contracted cash flow arrives. Higher refinancing costs or partnership debt would further reduce cash available for dividends and buybacks.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,547 (4,294 / 4,738) | 4,745 (4,181 / 5,100) | 5,100 (4,075 / 5,575) |
| Dividends per share | 3.00 (2.94 / 3.03) | 3.09 (2.94 / 3.15) | 3.18 (2.94 / 3.28) |
| Net debt | 13,310 (14,060 / 13,260) | 13,560 (15,160 / 13,060) | 13,610 (16,260 / 12,660) |
What is Pembina's dividend yield against its price?
The dividend tells the same story from another angle. In a simple constant-growth model, the current 4.2% yield implies about 5.8% annual dividend growth when an investor requires a 10% return. At a 9% required return, the implied growth falls to about 4.8%. The price does not reveal one unique growth expectation because the answer depends on both the return demanded and the length of the growth period.