O’Reilly stock forecast
The weighted price is $87.66 in October 2027 and $101.10 in October 2029. O’Reilly’s forecast hinges on demand, margins and free cash flow.
What could O’Reilly’s shares be worth?
The weighted price is $87.66 in October 2027, a 2% loss with dividends. It rises to $95.77 in October 2028, a 7% gain. It reaches $101.10 in October 2029, a 13% gain.
The bear case has a 25% weight; the base case has 55%. The bull case carries 20%. The October 2029 range runs from $67.28 in the bear case to $139.28 in the bull case. Today’s price is $89.27.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 69.89 (-22 %) | 69.00 (-23 %) | 67.28 (-25 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 89.30 (+0 %) | 97.87 (+10 %) | 102.58 (+15 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 105.36 (+18 %) | 123.46 (+38 %) | 139.28 (+56 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 87.66 (-2 %) | 95.77 (+7 %) | 101.10 (+13 %) |
What this means. The weighted value is the average across the bear, base, and bull cases based on their probabilities, not a separate likely outcome.
What does O’Reilly’s stock forecast depend on?
Professional sales grew about 19% from 2023 to 2025, versus about 6% for DIY. Q2 professional comparable sales grew 10%, but DIY transactions fell at a low-single-digit rate while same-item inflation reached 5.5%. Inventory turns also fell from 1.7x to 1.6x. These facts support the base case, but explain the bear and bull separation. The 2024 reserve charge is excluded from the forward run rate.
How much cash does O’Reilly really make?
Operating cash flow records cash produced by the business before capital spending. Free cash flow subtracts spending on stores, distribution, and other capital projects. In 2025, capital spending rose, so less operating cash remained after investment than in the prior year.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,761,993 | 3,049,576 | 3,034,084 | 3,148,250 | 3,207,310 |
| − Capital spending | 1,168,815 | 1,023,387 | 1,006,264 | 563,342 | 442,853 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,593,178 | 2,026,189 | 2,027,820 | 2,584,908 | 2,764,457 |
| − Stock pay | 35,115 | 28,931 | 27,511 | 26,458 | 24,656 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,558,063 | 1,997,258 | 2,000,309 | 2,558,450 | 2,739,801 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.8% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 17.8% | 20.6% |
What does an investor pay for O’Reilly?
The price-to-earnings, or P/E, multiple compares the share price with profit per share. Trailing P/E uses the past twelve months; forward P/E uses an estimate of the next twelve. But earnings are an accounting measure, not the same thing as cash available after customers, suppliers, taxes, inventory and new stores have been paid. O’Reilly’s cash-flow yield therefore makes its reinvestment needs central.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 89.27 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 28.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 24.4x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 4.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
What this means. The price-to-book ratio is not meaningful because the company owes more than the accounting value of what it owns, so the usual comparison cannot be made.