AutoZone stock forecast
The weighted scenario reaches $3,151.23 in October 2027 and $3,778.88 in October 2029, a 21% total return by October 2029. It hinges on whether growth becomes cash-generative before expansion and buybacks consume more flexibility.
Where could AutoZone's shares go?
The weighted October 2027 price is $3,151.23, a 1% total return including dividends. By October 2028, the weighted price reaches $3,454.33, an 11% return. By October 2029, it reaches $3,778.88, a 21% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 2479.90 (-21 %) | 2420.75 (-22 %) | 2355.72 (-25 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 3202.09 (+3 %) | 3515.69 (+13 %) | 3837.63 (+23 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 3922.77 (+26 %) | 4685.21 (+50 %) | 5539.00 (+77 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 3151.23 (+1 %) | 3454.33 (+11 %) | 3778.88 (+21 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average expected share value after giving more influence to the base case because it is more likely than the bear or bull case.
What has to go right for AutoZone, and what could go wrong?
The weighted price is $3,151.23 in October 2027 (+1%) and $3,778.88 in October 2029 (+21%). The forecast assigns 28% probability to bear, 52% to base, and 20% to bull. The next earnings release is expected around December 8, 2026, though unconfirmed; it will test DIY traffic stabilization and whether sales growth absorbs higher SG&A—the store, rent, and administrative costs. Through FY2027, Mega Hub-linked programs must deepen repeat sales and store cohorts approach management’s return curve. By FY2028 and FY2029, stronger free cash flow and international results support faster repurchases and the bull case; weak traffic, slow hub returns, or tighter financing push toward the bear case.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,639 (2,463 / 2,764) | 2,807 (2,518 / 3,027) | 2,971 (2,573 / 3,289) |
| Shares (millions) | 15.66 (15.89 / 15.50) | 15.17 (15.60 / 14.86) | 14.71 (15.29 / 14.25) |
| Dividends per share | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) |
| Price to earnings | 19.00 (16.00 / 22.00) | 19.00 (15.00 / 23.00) | 19.00 (14.00 / 24.00) |
How much cash does AutoZone really make?
Profit is not cash because accounting includes noncash items and timing differences. Stock compensation is also not an immediate cash payment, but employees receive shares that dilute existing owners. Subtracting stock pay therefore gives a stricter measure of what shareholders retain.
The trend matters more than one year’s total. Real free cash flow fell from fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2026 while capital spending rose. The company opened 374 stores in fiscal 2026 and continued building the infrastructure needed to improve parts availability and delivery speed. Those projects may support future sales, but the return must eventually catch up with the cash committed today.
| Aug 2026 | Aug 2025 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,302,846 | 3,155,401 | 3,004,116 | 2,940,788 | 3,211,135 |
| − Capital spending | 1,496,255 | 1,365,321 | 1,072,696 | 796,657 | 672,391 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,806,591 | 1,790,080 | 1,931,420 | 2,144,131 | 2,538,744 |
| − Stock pay | 136,804 | 124,717 | 106,246 | 93,087 | 70,612 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,669,787 | 1,665,363 | 1,825,174 | 2,051,044 | 2,468,132 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 15.2% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs from ours because it uses its own rules, adding back some cash items and subtracting others.
What does an investor pay for AutoZone today?
AutoZone’s valuation looks moderate on earnings, but its financing and investment needs make the price more demanding than the P/E alone suggests.