Orange earnings: results, guidance and what to watch
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Orange reported revenue rose 22.0% in the third quarter of 2026, with comparable growth of 3.6%, while first-half net income reached €3.21 billion. Watch whether Orange can complete the SFR transaction without losing financial discipline.
What has Orange guided for 2026?
For 2026, management targets EBITDAaL growth above 4.5%. It targets eCAPEX, network investment, at 15% of revenue and organic cash flow of €4.3 billion. Net debt/EBITDAaL has a medium-term target of around 2.0 times; the proposed 2026 dividend is €0.79 per share, subject to shareholder approval.
| Period | Low | High | Given on | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDAaL growth | Year to Dec 2026 | 4.5% | Oct 27, 2026 | |
| eCAPEX-to-revenue ratio | Year to Dec 2026 | 15.0% | 15.0% | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Organic cash flow (EUR millions) | Year to Dec 2026 | 4,300 | 4,300 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Net debt/EBITDAaL ratio | Medium term | 2.0x | 2.0x | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Dividend per share (EUR) | Year to Dec 2026 | 0.79 | 0.79 | Oct 27, 2026 |
What this means. The interim dividend of 0.30 euros per share is included in the 0.79 euros annual dividend, so it is not extra.
Has Orange kept its past promises?
Organic cash flow is Orange’s measure of cash left by normal telecom operations after ordinary investment and lease repayments, excluding some exceptional payments. Orange reported €3.653 billion for 2025 against a revised target of at least €3.6 billion. The original €4 billion target was changed after Spain left the consolidated group, so the two targets do not describe exactly the same business.
| What management forecast | Checked | Above | Within | Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organic cash flow from telecom activities | 5 years | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Dividend per share | 5 years | 0 | 5 | 0 |
What this means. The cash paid in 2021 includes a one-time dividend from 2020, so it is not the same as the regular 2021 dividend.
What has Orange’s recent revenue and profit trend been?
Revenue rose 22.0% in the quarter, partly because Orange España, formerly MasOrange, entered full consolidation from June 2026. Comparable revenue growth was 3.6%, after adjusting for scope and currency. Africa and the Middle East grew fastest, while Orange Business declined. The comparable figure is the better guide to existing operations.
First-half profit requires more care. Operating income reached €4.77 billion for the six months to June 2026, while net income reached €3.21 billion. The period included a €2.04 billion gain from remeasuring Orange’s existing MasOrange stake when Orange gained control, plus a €362 million contract-settlement gain. Removing those operating gains would leave €2.38 billion of operating income. That is accounting profit, not new customer cash.
| 6 months to Jun 2026 | 6 months to Dec 2025 | 6 months to Jun 2025 | 6 months to Dec 2024 | 6 months to Jun 2024 | 6 months to Dec 2023 | 6 months to Jun 2023 | 6 months to Dec 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20,948 | 20,543 | 19,853 | 20,421 | 19,839 | 20,326 | 19,352 | |
| Operating income | 4,774 | 2,737 | 685 | 3,084 | 2,032 | 2,670 | 2,061 | |
| Net income | 3,206 | 937 | -441 | 1,528 | 615 | 1,393 | 844 | |
| EPS, diluted | 1.16 | 0.32 | -0.20 | 0.54 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.28 |
What this means. Free cash flow cannot be compared directly with profit because it covers a different set of businesses, including some discontinued Spanish operations and excluding Mobile Financial Services.
What should you watch in Orange’s next release?
The next decisive test is whether Orange can complete the SFR transaction without losing financial discipline.