Nutrien earnings: guidance and next results
Nutrien's next results are expected on November 4, 2026. For Nutrien, watch cash after necessary investment through reliable nitrogen output and Retail margins.
What has Nutrien guided for 2026?
For 2026, management guides to potash sales of 14.2–14.8 million tonnes and Retail adjusted EBITDA of US$1.75–1.95 billion. Nitrogen sales guidance is 9.2–9.7 million tonnes, assuming no production from Trinidad and New Madrid. Capital expenditure is slated at US$1.95–2.05 billion; lower spending supports cash only if reliability and necessary maintenance hold.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail adjusted EBITDA | Year to Dec 2026 | 1.75 | 1.95 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Potash sales volumes (million tonnes) | Year to Dec 2026 | 14.2 | 14.8 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Nitrogen sales volumes (million tonnes) | Year to Dec 2026 | 9.2 | 9.7 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Capital expenditures | Year to Dec 2026 | 1.95 | 2.05 | Aug 5, 2026 |
What this means. Retail adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization is not the company's final profit because it leaves out interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Did Nutrien keep its past promises?
Nutrien targeted about US$200 million in annual cost savings and said it surpassed that target in 2025. Capital spending was US$2.0 billion, below a US$2.2–2.3 billion target. Those results support management’s promises, but lower spending helps shareholders only if reliability and necessary maintenance remain intact.
What has Nutrien's revenue and profit done over the last eight quarters?
Nutrien’s reported profit recovered strongly, but recurring earning power recovered less.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,812 | 6,046 | 5,340 | 6,007 | 10,438 | 5,100 | 5,079 | 5,348 |
| Operating income | 1,777 | 360 | 921 | 807 | 1,782 | 226 | 397 | 196 |
| Net income | 1,214 | 131 | 571 | 464 | 1,221 | 11 | 113 | 18 |
| EPS, diluted | 2.53 | 0.27 | 1.18 | 0.96 | 2.50 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.04 |
What this means. Free cash flow also subtracts lease payments, even though its definition mentions only spending on equipment.
What should investors watch in Nutrien's next results?
Third-quarter results are due on November 4, 2026, followed by the earnings call on November 5. Investors should look for reliable nitrogen output after maintenance and for Retail margins to offset weaker fertilizer volumes. The key test is cash after necessary investment. Improvement achieved by postponing repairs would mean something different from improvement achieved through better equipment performance.