Nutrien dividend: payout, cash cover and yield
Nutrien pays US$0.55 per share quarterly, and the forecast's base dividend is US$2.20 per share. Nutrien's shareholder payments have exceeded free cash flow over the five-year period, so coverage depends on cash on hand, borrowing, asset sales or other financing.
How much does Nutrien pay per share over time?
Nutrien resumed buybacks in 2026 at approximately US$75 million a month while maintaining its quarterly dividend of US$0.55. A buyback cancels repurchased shares, increasing the ownership percentage of continuing shareholders. It creates value only if the company pays a sensible price and future cash generation supports the smaller share count. Nutrien therefore demonstrated a willingness to return cash, but the lifetime return on those purchases remains unresolved.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 4.66 | 1.36 | 2.53 | 14.18 | 5.52 |
| Free cash flow per share | 3.25 | 1.98 | 4.21 | 9.80 | 2.94 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 2.18 | 2.14 | 2.08 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 1.13 | 0.37 | 2.11 | 8.37 | 1.81 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow per share is higher because it leaves out some investment spending that our count subtracts.
Does Nutrien's cash cover its dividend?
Nutrien’s cash record shows heavy investment followed by substantial shareholder distributions, including payments that exceeded free cash flow over the five-year period.
Capital expenditure rose through 2023 and then declined by 2025. It funded maintenance, mine work, automation and expansion. Free cash flow means cash left after specified operating costs and capital requirements; it is not the same as profit or all cash available for distribution. If payments exceed it, the gap must come from cash on hand, borrowing, asset sales or other financing.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 1,583 | 979 | 2,091 | 5,294 | 1,682 |
| − Dividends paid | 1,061 | 1,060 | 1,032 | 1,031 | 1,045 |
| − Share buybacks | 551 | 184 | 1,047 | 4,520 | 1,035 |
| Paid to shareholders | 1,612 | 1,244 | 2,079 | 5,551 | 2,080 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 101.8% | 127.1% | 99.4% | 104.9% | 123.7% |
| Paid out, % of real free cash flow | 113.5% | 132.1% | 98.8% | 106.1% | 140.2% |
What this means. The company's own net debt is higher because it includes lease liabilities and adjusts debt values differently, while our simple calculation subtracts cash from reported borrowings.
What could change Nutrien's dividend?
The base dividend stays at USD 2.20 per share through 2029. The bear case holds at USD 2.20 before cutting to USD 2.00. The bull case rises to USD 2.28 in 2028 and USD 2.36 in 2029. The current quarterly rate is USD 0.55. The history supports increases, but free-cash-flow pressure makes a flat base payout more defensible.
What is Nutrien's dividend yield today?
Free cash flow yield measures the cash left after capital spending relative to the share price. The calculated yield is 4.8%, while the stated real yield is 4.3%. The dividend yield is 3.2%, but the dividend is a distribution of available cash, not an extra source of cash flow.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 98.77 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.3% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.2% |