Nutrien stock forecast
The weighted price is CAD 95.97 in October 2027, or +0%, and reaches CAD 128.36 in October 2029, a 39% total return. It hinges on new supply outrunning shipments, weaker farmer affordability and cash conversion.
Where could Nutrien's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is CAD 95.97 in October 2027, or +0%. It reaches CAD 128.36 in October 2029, a 39% total return. The bear case carries a 30% probability. The base case carries 50%. The bull case carries 20%. The 2029 range is CAD 53.30 to CAD 239.31.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 51.74 (-44 %) | 41.62 (-52 %) | 53.30 (-37 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 101.54 (+6 %) | 112.77 (+21 %) | 129.01 (+40 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 148.38 (+53 %) | 193.05 (+102 %) | 239.31 (+152 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 95.97 (+0 %) | 107.49 (+15 %) | 128.36 (+39 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-adjusted average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right for Nutrien?
New supply outrunning shipments, weaker farmer affordability or cash conversion that limits the current 1.7% buyback yield would push the forecast toward the bear case. Reliable production and stronger Retail margins would push it toward the bull case. Third-quarter results are due November 4, 2026, with the earnings call November 5. Investor Day follows November 30, 2026. The active phosphate strategic review could change the capital outlook through its sale or operating plan, net proceeds and retained environmental costs.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 26,885 | 25,972 | 29,056 | 37,884 | 27,712 |
| Revenue growth | 3.5% | -10.6% | -23.3% | 36.7% | 32.5% |
| Operating margin | 13.9% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 28.5% | 17.3% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.3% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 13.8% | 5.4% |
| Net debt | 10,035 | 10,599 | 10,299 | 9,823 | 9,127 |
What this means. Revenue growth can look higher or lower because buying or selling businesses is included, so it does not show only growth in the businesses the company kept.
How much cash does Nutrien really make?
Free cash flow depends on what gets deducted. Nutrien’s own measure deducts sustaining capital, mine development and lease principal. A stricter bridge also treats stock compensation as an economic cost. That produces a lower residual because shares issued to employees still dilute owners, even though the immediate cash-flow statement adds the expense back.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 1,583 | 979 | 2,091 | 5,294 | 1,682 |
| − Stock pay | 163 | 37 | -14 | 63 | 198 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,420 | 942 | 2,105 | 5,231 | 1,484 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 1,979 | 1,409 | 3,025 | 4,300 | |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.9% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 14.0% | 6.1% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.3% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 13.8% | 5.4% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves out some investment spending and the value of shares paid to employees, while our count includes them.
What does an investor pay for Nutrien today?
Free cash flow yield measures the cash left after capital spending relative to the share price. The calculated yield is 4.8%, while the stated real yield is 4.3%. The dividend yield is 3.2%, but the dividend is a distribution of available cash, not an extra source of cash flow.