NetApp stock forecast
NetApp's weighted forecast is $161.87 in October 2027, down 20% including dividends. NetApp's forecast hinges on earnings and cash growth holding as the valuation multiple falls.
Where could NetApp's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast puts NetApp below today’s price at all three dates. At October 2027, the weighted price is $161.87, down 20% including dividends. At October 2028, it is $167.90, down 16%. At October 2029, it is $180.15, down 9%.
The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case, 50% to the base case and 20% to the bull case, making steady execution the most likely path.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 125.83 (-37 %) | 92.86 (-52 %) | 84.23 (-56 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 159.79 (-21 %) | 167.33 (-16 %) | 174.13 (-11 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 221.12 (+10 %) | 281.88 (+40 %) | 339.07 (+70 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 161.87 (-20 %) | 167.90 (-16 %) | 180.15 (-9 %) |
What has to go right for NetApp, and what could go wrong?
Earnings are the largest difference between the scenarios. The base case rises from $1,550 million in October 2027 to $1,690 million in October 2028 and $1,840 million in October 2029. It assumes revenue and margins improve steadily without a major AI windfall. The starting point is close to the FY2027 GAAP outlook of $7.35–$7.65 EPS and $7.975–$8.225 billion of revenue.
The bull case requires flash share gains to persist, AI pilots to become paid production deployments and cloud and Keystone growth to produce repeatable cash returns. Pricing offsets component inflation, buybacks approach the remaining authorization and investors sustain a premium multiple. The result is $221.12 initially and $339.07 by October 2029. Its 20% probability reflects the strength of recent flash and cloud growth, but the absence of demonstrated repeat AI economics keeps it below the base case.
How much cash does NetApp really make?
Stock compensation explains part of the difference. NetApp recorded $382 million of share-based pay in FY2026 and added it back in cash flow because issuing shares uses no immediate cash. Employees still receive something valuable, so treating that amount as entirely free cash would ignore dilution. Deducting it produces the “real free cash flow” convention used here.
| Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,067 | 1,506 | 1,685 | 1,107 | 1,211 |
| − Capital spending | 198 | 168 | 155 | 239 | 226 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,869 | 1,338 | 1,530 | 868 | 985 |
| − Stock pay | 382 | 386 | 357 | 312 | 245 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,487 | 952 | 1,173 | 556 | 740 |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because share-based pay uses no cash today but gives employees part of the company.
What does an investor pay for NetApp today?
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 203.80 |
| Market value (calculated) | 40,030.19 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 28.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 20.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.7% |
What this means. The share price shown for October 19 is actually the closing price from October 16, because that is the latest price available.