Nike earnings: guidance and next results
Nike's next results are expected on December 17, 2026. The one thing to watch is full-price demand and steadier cash.
What has Nike guided for fiscal 2027?
Nike’s weighted forecast falls to $24.62 in October 2027 and reaches $45.27 in October 2029; the path hinges on renewed demand, healthier prices and stronger cash conversion. Management guides to adjusted diluted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35 for the year to May 2027, with $300 million of Pace-related pre-tax charges. It expects a high-single-digit revenue decline in FY27 and a 400-basis-point headwind in the quarter to November 2026. Pace—Nike’s cost-cutting and simplification program—targets about $2.5 billion of cumulative savings through FY31 before reinvestment. Those savings must outweigh transition costs and weaker sales.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | Year to May 2027 | Oct 1, 2026 | ||
| Effective tax rate | Year to May 2027 | Oct 1, 2026 | ||
| Adjusted Diluted earnings per share | Year to May 2027 | 1.15 | 1.35 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Pre-tax charges related to Pace | Year to May 2027 | 300 | 300 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| EBIT | Year to May 2027 | Oct 1, 2026 | ||
| Headwind to revenues in the second quarter (basis points) | Quarter to Nov 2026 | 400 | 400 | Oct 1, 2026 |
What this means. The 400 basis point headwind means Nike expects revenue to be about four percentage points lower in the second quarter because of comparisons with last year's promotions and North American shipments.
What do Nike's last eight quarters show?
Nike also beat quarterly earnings expectations in each of the eight quarters shown from Q2 fiscal 2025 through Q1 fiscal 2027. Revenue beat in seven of those quarters. That record shows that Nike can outperform a quarterly estimate, but it does not settle the larger question. A company can beat a lowered quarterly bar while guiding to a weak year, so the analyst yardstick must now focus on demand, prices and cash.
| Aug 2026 | May 2026 | Feb 2026 | Nov 2025 | Aug 2025 | May 2025 | Feb 2025 | Nov 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,213 | 10,972 | 11,279 | 12,427 | 11,720 | 11,097 | 11,269 | 12,354 |
| Operating income | 888 | 1,311 | 553 | 1,006 | 927 | 321 | 788 | 1,384 |
| Net income | 712 | 1,069 | 520 | 792 | 727 | 211 | 794 | 1,163 |
| EPS, diluted | 0.48 | 0.72 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 0.78 |
| Cash from operations | 135 | 1,637 | 430 | 579 | 222 | 463 | 1,792 | 1,049 |
What this means. May 2026 profit looks unusually high because it includes 986 million dollars the company expects to recover from tariffs, not just money earned from normal business.
What should Nike watch in the next release?
The turnaround will be credible only if Nike converts strategy and restructuring into full-price demand and steadier cash.
The first signs are operational. Investors should watch whether legacy footwear supply declines, digital sales recover at full price, and wholesale relationships improve without simply shifting discounted goods into stores. Performance sports have shown momentum, but Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China still need corrective work. A rebound in one sport would not prove that the whole company has recovered.