Nike stock forecast
Nike's weighted forecast falls to $24.62 in October 2027 and reaches $45.27 in October 2029; bear, base and bull probabilities are 32%, 50% and 18%. It hinges on renewed demand, healthier prices and stronger cash conversion.
Where could Nike's shares be by 2029?
Nike’s weighted forecast falls to $24.62 in October 2027 and reaches $45.27 in October 2029; the path hinges on renewed demand, healthier prices and stronger cash conversion. Management guides to adjusted diluted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35 for the year to May 2027, with $300 million of Pace-related pre-tax charges. It expects a high-single-digit revenue decline in FY27 and a 400-basis-point headwind in the quarter to November 2026. Pace—Nike’s cost-cutting and simplification program—targets about $2.5 billion of cumulative savings through FY31 before reinvestment. Those savings must outweigh transition costs and weaker sales.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 32 % | 14.92 (-55 %) | 12.08 (-59 %) | 12.91 (-52 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 26.08 (-25 %) | 38.03 (+12 %) | 47.63 (+43 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 37.79 (+7 %) | 68.78 (+95 %) | 96.27 (+175 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 24.62 (-29 %) | 35.26 (+4 %) | 45.27 (+36 %) |
What has to go right for Nike's stock forecast?
The forecast implies a 29% loss including dividends by October 2027, then a 36% gain by October 2029, from $37.13 today. Bear, base and bull probabilities are 32%, 50% and 18%. Full-price sell-through, healthier retailer reorders and less reliance on markdowns are decisive. The October 2026 “made for China” collection and November Investor Day test local execution and the recovery plan. Nike’s upside requires demand and cash conversion to return before savings can support margins and buybacks.
How much cash does Nike really make?
Cash from operations measures cash generated by the business; free cash flow subtracts spending on stores, distribution, technology and equipment. Stock compensation is deducted in the briefing’s “real free cash flow” measure because awards do not use cash immediately but can dilute owners over time.
| May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,868 | 3,698 | 7,429 | 5,841 | 5,188 |
| − Capital spending | 684 | 430 | 812 | 969 | 758 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,184 | 3,268 | 6,617 | 4,872 | 4,430 |
| − Stock pay | 715 | 709 | 804 | 755 | 638 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,469 | 2,559 | 5,813 | 4,117 | 3,792 |
What this means. The report subtracts stock pay even though it uses no cash because giving employees shares reduces what existing shareholders own.
What does an investor pay for Nike today?
Trailing P/E uses the last twelve months of earnings, while forward P/E uses expected earnings. Nike said FY26 earnings per share would have been $1.58 without tariff recovery. That temporary benefit makes recent earnings look stronger, so a higher forward P/E warns that near-term earnings may fall before they recover.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 37.13 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 24.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.7% |
What this means. The enterprise value is lower than the market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt, reducing what a buyer would effectively pay for the business.