Nike dividend
Nike's base dividend rises from $1.63 to $1.84 per share, while the bear case freezes it at $1.63 and the bull case reaches $2.16. FY26 free cash flow of $2.184 billion was below dividends paid of $2.407 billion, although $9.027 billion of cash and short-term investments supports a freeze rather than an immediate cut.
How much does Nike pay in dividends?
The base dividend rises from $1.63 to $1.84 per share. The bear case freezes it at $1.63, while the bull case reaches $2.16. The freeze is credible because FY26 free cash flow of $2.184 billion was below dividends paid of $2.407 billion. The balance sheet's $9.027 billion of cash and short-term investments supports a freeze rather than an immediate cut.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,034 (1,389 / 2,416) | 2,665 (1,288 / 3,682) | 3,149 (1,486 / 4,532) |
| Dividends per share | 1.70 (1.63 / 1.78) | 1.77 (1.63 / 1.96) | 1.84 (1.63 / 2.16) |
| Price to earnings | 19.00 (16.00 / 23.00) | 21.00 (14.00 / 27.00) | 22.00 (13.00 / 30.00) |
Does Nike's dividend fit its free cash flow?
Over the five fiscal years shown, shareholder payouts exceeded free cash flow in several years, and net cash declined across the period. That does not prove Nike could not afford the payments. Free cash flow is a flow during one year, while cash and investments on the balance sheet are a stock accumulated over earlier years. But repeated shortfalls reduce the cushion available for inventory, restructuring and new investment.
| May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 2,184 | 3,268 | 6,617 | 4,872 | 4,430 |
| − Dividends paid | 2,407 | 2,300 | 2,169 | 2,012 | 1,837 |
| − Share buybacks | 146 | 2,985 | 4,250 | 5,480 | 4,014 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 198 | ||||
| Paid to shareholders | 2,553 | 5,285 | 6,419 | 7,492 | 5,851 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 116.9% | 161.7% | 97.0% | 153.8% | 132.1% |
What this means. The company sometimes paid shareholders more than its free cash flow, making up the difference with savings, investment sales, or new shares.
What could change Nike's dividend?
By October 2027, the bear view strengthens if China and weak franchises continue to decline, while adjusted EPS falls outside management's $1.15-to-$1.35 range. It weakens if inventory clearance produces full-price demand and margins stabilize.
By October 2028, the bull view gains support if performance products create repeat demand, China and wholesale execution recover, and revenue growth broadens. By October 2029, lower markdowns, Pace savings and stronger cash conversion must lift margins and fund buybacks; otherwise the restrained base multiple remains appropriate.
What is Nike's dividend yield against its price?
Revenue peaked in May 2024. Operating margin was 8.2% in May 2026, while Nike’s own real free cash flow was 3.2% of revenue. Real free cash flow had been 11.3% of revenue in May 2024, and real free cash flow per share was $0.99 in May 2026. At $37.13, shares trade at 17.9x trailing and 24.8x next-twelve-month earnings. The free-cash-flow yield is 4.0%, and the real free-cash-flow yield is 2.7%. Payouts exceeded free cash flow in May 2026, while buybacks were $146 million.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 37.13 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.7% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.4% |
What this means. The enterprise value is lower than the market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt, reducing what a buyer would effectively pay for the business.