Metlen dividend
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Metlen's latest declared dividend is €1.00 per share, after a history that reached €1.50 before falling. It was paid while free cash flow was negative €199.0 million, so the distribution depended on eventual investment returns and cash receipts rather than a surplus after displayed investment.
How much does Metlen pay per share?
Dividends remain below the bull case unless cash generation improves. The base path is €1.85 in October 2027 and €2.00 in October 2028, reaching €2.15 in October 2029. The bear path is €0.50, €0.75 and €1.00; the bull path is €2.25, €2.80 and €3.40. The latest declared dividend was €1.00, after a history that reached €1.50 before falling. The base applies the prospectus’s 35% intended payout reference to the supplied €5.28569 next-12-month EPS estimate, but the negative free-cash-flow record limits confidence in full distribution.
The 2025 dividend also shows the tension. Free cash flow was negative €199.0 million while the dividend was €1.00 per share. The distribution therefore depended on the eventual returns and cash receipts from investment, not on a surplus after all displayed investment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 2.20 | 4.33 | 4.44 | 3.41 | 1.19 |
| Free cash flow per share | -1.39 | -1.72 | -5.19 | 1.41 | -1.13 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.17 | 0.42 | 0.37 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow per share is lower because it subtracts both maintenance and growth spending on equipment, while our count subtracts only purchases of property, plant and equipment.
Is Metlen's dividend covered by its cash?
Shareholders continued to receive cash during this expansion. Dividends paid rose to €214.090 million in 2025, even though free cash flow was negative. Borrowing helped fund the wider programme: Metlen received €2,618.375 million from borrowings and repaid €1,604.505 million in 2025. Some of that movement was refinancing, but debt still rose materially. Cash collection later improved through renewable-project proceeds, overdue receivables and customer prepayments.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | -198,979 | -245,464 | -730,571 | 193,248 | -153,954 |
| − Dividends paid | 214,090 | 206,363 | 165,203 | 57,890 | 49,749 |
| − Investments bought | 0 | 1,683 | 19,169 | ||
| + Debt issued | 2,618,375 | 2,088,419 | 1,981,547 | 2,016,075 | 975,479 |
| − Debt repaid | 1,604,505 | 1,044,215 | 1,102,540 | 1,658,648 | 610,682 |
What this means. The company's own net debt differs from ours because it treats lease obligations and restricted cash differently, so the two figures are not directly comparable.
What could change Metlen's dividend?
The bear case would gain weight if further EPC cost revisions appear during 2026–2028, especially as legacy projects reach completion. Delayed billing and collections would keep contract assets and working capital elevated. Higher energy costs or weaker aluminium economics during 2027–2029 would further reduce Metals margins. Refinancing pressure would compress the multiple, particularly with substantial debt due within twelve months.
What is Metlen's dividend yield today?
EV/EBITDA compares the whole financed business with operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. It is 12.3x using FY2025 EBITDA of €753 million, but EBITDA is not cash: Metlen identifies about €137 million of annual maintenance capital expenditure before expansion. The dividend yield is 2.1%, while free cash flow yield is negative 3.0% and real free cash flow yield is negative 3.2%. The starting valuation therefore leads directly to the question of whether Metlen can convert recovery into cash.
| Today (Oct 25, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 46.94 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -3.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -3.2% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.1% |
What this means. The negative free cash flow yield means the company used more cash than it generated in the latest year, even if it reported a profit.