Marriott dividend: payout and cash coverage
Marriott pays at a $2.92 annualized rate implied by the declared $0.73 quarterly dividend. Its distribution payments were larger than internally generated cash, so cash did not fully cover shareholder returns.
How much does Marriott pay per share over the years shown?
Dividends start from the $2.92 annualized rate implied by the declared $0.73 quarterly dividend. The base case reaches $3.20 in October 2027 and $3.52 in October 2028, then $3.84. The bear case holds at $2.92 before cutting to $2.19. The bull case reaches $3.36 initially and $4.64 finally. Recent increases support the base path, but 2025 shareholder payments exceeded free cash flow.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 4,500 (3,800 / 4,800) | 4,800 (4,000 / 5,250) | 5,100 (4,200 / 5,700) |
| Shares (millions) | 251 (254 / 250) | 243 (250 / 242) | 236 (246 / 234) |
| Dividends per share | 3.20 (2.92 / 3.36) | 3.52 (2.92 / 4.00) | 3.84 (2.92 / 4.64) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 26.00 (22.00 / 29.00) | 25.00 (20.00 / 30.00) | 24.00 (18.50 / 30.50) |
| Net debt | 19,152 (18,492 / 18,689) | 21,121 (19,772 / 20,072) | 22,940 (20,789 / 21,275) |
Does Marriott's dividend fit its free cash flow?
Marriott’s distribution plan for 2023–2025 was to return $11.7 billion–$13.6 billion to shareholders, and the cash bridge records $13,002 million. That fulfilled the promise, but the payments were larger than internally generated cash. The difference could come from existing cash, asset sales or borrowing, each of which reduces future flexibility in a different way.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 2,258 | 1,973 | 2,617 | 2,031 | 994 |
| − Dividends paid | 718 | 682 | 587 | 321 | 0 |
| − Share buybacks | 3,300 | 3,762 | 3,953 | 2,566 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 994 | ||||
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 1,760 | 2,471 | 1,923 | 856 | |
| Paid to shareholders | 4,018 | 4,444 | 4,540 | 2,887 | 0 |
What this means. Marriott paid shareholders more cash than its business generated, so it had to use savings or borrow money to cover the difference.
What could change Marriott's dividend?
Debt would become a larger concern if dividends and buybacks continued to exceed cash generation through 2027–2029. That would constrain repurchases, raise interest pressure and justify a lower multiple.
What is Marriott's dividend yield at today's price?
Marriott International earns fees by franchising, managing and licensing hotel brands, so its stock price values a stream of future payments from hotels and partners. At $385.71, the price assumes that stream will keep growing even though debt and other claims already stand ahead of shareholders.
Free cash flow yield is 2.2%, while real free cash flow yield is 2.0% and the dividend yield is 0.8%. A 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 5.19% makes Marriott’s modest current cash return especially relevant.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 385.71 |
| Market value (calculated) | 100,580.16 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 117,033.16 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.0% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.8% |
What this means. Price to book is not meaningful because the company owes more than it owns, making its book value negative.