IHG stock forecast
IHG's weighted forecast is $175.65 by October 2027, with the base case carrying 55% probability. It hinges on fee growth, cash conversion and buybacks.
Where could IHG's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast points to moderate gains, but the possible outcomes remain unusually wide. The weighted price is $175.65 by October 2027, a 6% return including dividends. It reaches $196.21 by October 2028, a 19% return. By October 2029, it reaches $215.55, a 32% return.
At the final date, the modeled range runs from $97.19 to $347.53. The base case receives the largest probability, at 55%. The bear case has 25%, while the bull case has 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 125.83 (-24 %) | 110.41 (-32 %) | 97.19 (-39 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 181.59 (+10 %) | 204.72 (+25 %) | 221.35 (+36 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 221.57 (+34 %) | 280.05 (+70 %) | 347.53 (+111 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 175.65 (+6 %) | 196.21 (+19 %) | 215.55 (+32 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for IHG?
The view would move bearward during 2027–2028 if RevPAR and underlying fee revenue slow, especially in Greater China. It would weaken further through 2029 if signed rooms fail to open, owner financing constraints raise support costs, or free cash flow cannot sustain buybacks while leverage remains elevated.
How much cash does IHG really make?
Net income was $758 million in 2025, while cash from operations was $898 million. Capital spending was $197 million and lease payments were $30 million. That produced free cash flow of $671 million. Deducting $72 million of stock pay gives a narrower “real free cash flow” of $599 million. This is an analytical allowance for dilution, not a second cash payment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 898 | 724 | 893 | 646 | 636 |
| − Capital spending | 197 | 78 | 82 | 99 | 52 |
| − Lease payments | 30 | 46 | 28 | 36 | 32 |
| = Free cash flow | 671 | 600 | 783 | 511 | 552 |
| − Stock pay | 72 | 67 | 56 | 46 | 41 |
| = Real free cash flow | 599 | 533 | 727 | 465 | 511 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves out cash spent on leases, selected investments, and other items that we count as money the business actually spent.
What does an investor pay for IHG today?
P/E, or price-to-earnings, shows what investors pay for each dollar of earnings per share. Trailing P/E uses the last twelve months; forward P/E uses the next twelve months. Basic EPS follows accounting profit, while adjusted EPS removes items IHG considers less representative. The denominator therefore matters. A low free-cash-flow yield also means that future growth must justify the price, especially because key money—cash paid to win hotel contracts—helps acquire future fees but still consumes cash.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 166.80 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 35.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 25.5x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.4% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.1% |
What this means. The price-to-book measure is not meaningful because the company’s accounting value is negative: it owes more than it owns on paper.