Mastercard earnings: guidance and what to watch
Mastercard's next results are expected on October 29, 2026. Watch whether profit becomes operating cash.
What has Mastercard guided for the year?
The clearest view of the ordinary business removes exchange-rate movements and acquisitions or disposals. On that currency-neutral, organic basis, Mastercard expects revenue growth at the high end of low double digits and operating-expense growth in the low double digits. Because revenue should grow faster, operating profit should grow faster than revenue.
Management kept the range unchanged but said stronger first-half results made it more confident about finishing at the higher end. The September quarter will test that confidence. Mastercard again expects underlying revenue growth at the high end of low double digits, against low double-digit expense growth.
| The period guided | Low | High | The date it was given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue — Forecasted Growth - GAAP | Fiscal 2026 | Low teens | Low teens | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Operating Expenses — Forecasted Growth - GAAP | Fiscal 2026 | High end of high single digits | High end of high single digits | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Net Revenue — Non-GAAP Growth | Fiscal 2026 | Low teens | Low teens | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Operating Expenses — Non-GAAP Growth | Fiscal 2026 | High end of low double digits | High end of low double digits | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Net Revenue — Non-GAAP Growth, currency-neutral, excluding inorganic activity | Fiscal 2026 | High end of low double digits | High end of low double digits | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Operating Expenses — Non-GAAP Growth, currency-neutral, excluding inorganic activity | Fiscal 2026 | Low double digits | Low double digits | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Net Revenue — Forecasted Growth - GAAP | Quarter to Sep 2026 | High end of low double digits | High end of low double digits | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Operating Expenses — Forecasted Growth - GAAP | Quarter to Sep 2026 | High single digit | High single digit | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Net Revenue — Non-GAAP Growth | Quarter to Sep 2026 | High end of low double digits | High end of low double digits | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Operating Expenses — Non-GAAP Growth | Quarter to Sep 2026 | Low double digits | Low double digits | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Net Revenue — Non-GAAP Growth, currency-neutral, excluding inorganic activity | Quarter to Sep 2026 | High end of low double digits | High end of low double digits | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Operating Expenses — Non-GAAP Growth, currency-neutral, excluding inorganic activity | Quarter to Sep 2026 | Low double digits | Low double digits | Jul 30, 2026 |
Has Mastercard kept its past promises?
Mastercard separately promised 2025–27 revenue growth at the high end of low double digits and EPS growth in the mid-teens. In 2025, currency-neutral adjusted revenue and EPS each grew 15%. That is a first year consistent with the direction of the promise, but the full period remains unfinished.
What has Mastercard’s revenue and profit trend been?
Revenue rose 14.1% year over year, while operating income rose 17.0%. Net income increased 18.6%, and diluted EPS increased 22.1%. The operating margin reached 60.2%, up from 58.7%. The comparison with the same quarter a year earlier is more useful than the sequential comparison because payment activity and costs are seasonal.
| Quarter to Jun 2026 | Quarter to Mar 2026 | Quarter to Dec 2025 | Quarter to Sep 2025 | Quarter to Jun 2025 | Quarter to Mar 2025 | Quarter to Dec 2024 | Quarter to Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,277 | 8,398 | 8,806 | 8,602 | 8,133 | 7,250 | 7,489 | 7,369 |
| Operating income | 5,587 | 4,907 | 4,910 | 5,061 | 4,777 | 4,149 | 3,938 | 4,004 |
| Net income | 4,388 | 3,882 | 4,060 | 3,927 | 3,701 | 3,280 | 3,342 | 3,263 |
| EPS, diluted | 4.97 | 4.35 | 4.52 | 4.34 | 4.07 | 3.59 | 3.64 | 3.53 |
| Cash from operations | 3,773 | 2,999 | 5,002 | 5,663 | 4,603 | 2,380 | 4,834 | 5,136 |
| Capital spending | 291 | 154 | 112 | 178 | 40 | 159 | 95 | 107 |
What should you watch in Mastercard’s next results?
The next results will show whether Mastercard’s stronger outlook becomes cash it can retain. The September-quarter results are expected to be published on October 29, 2026, though that is an analyst estimate of the date rather than a confirmed company announcement. Investors should watch whether revenue outgrows underlying expenses and whether profit becomes operating cash. BVNK’s first partial quarter may reveal integration costs, but not its eventual return.