Emerson stock forecast
Emerson’s weighted value reaches $162.12 in October 2027 and $192.55 in October 2029. It hinges on software growth, project conversion and cash generation sufficient to manage debt.
Where could Emerson’s shares be by October 2029?
The forecast assigns 28% probability to the bear case, 54% to the base case and 18% to the bull case. The base case reaches $170.37 in October 2027 and $199.63 in October 2029. By October 2029, the bear case reaches $99.30 and the bull case $316.37.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 113.78 (-28 %) | 102.10 (-34 %) | 99.30 (-35 %) |
| Base | 54 % | 170.37 (+7 %) | 188.35 (+19 %) | 199.63 (+28 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 212.58 (+33 %) | 265.32 (+67 %) | 316.37 (+100 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 162.12 (+1 %) | 178.06 (+13 %) | 192.55 (+23 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving more weight to the base case because it is judged more likely, not a promise that the shares will reach that price.
What has to go right or wrong for Emerson?
The bear case gives earnings of 3,500, 3,550 and 3,700 as weak project conversion and late renewals keep growth near 1–2%. The bull case reaches 5,700 by 2029 because ACV growth, orders, backlog conversion and AspenTech cross-selling all strengthen. ACV was 1.68 billion, up 9%, and June-quarter orders grew 7%. Emerson’s 6.55 adjusted-EPS guide and 8.00 target for 2028 support growth, but they are targets rather than net-income guarantees. The forecast excludes the 82 million tariff refund, disposal gains and acquisition accounting charges.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 4,100 (3,500 / 4,350) | 4,500 (3,550 / 5,000) | 4,950 (3,700 / 5,700) |
| Shares (millions) | 554 (554 / 552) | 550 (556 / 546) | 546 (559 / 540) |
| Dividends per share | 2.33 (2.22 / 2.38) | 2.45 (2.22 / 2.57) | 2.57 (2.29 / 2.77) |
| Price to earnings | 23.00 (18.00 / 27.00) | 23.00 (16.00 / 29.00) | 22.00 (15.00 / 30.00) |
How much cash does Emerson really make?
Operating cash flow was $3,676 million in fiscal 2025. Capital spending was $431 million, leaving free cash flow of $3,245 million. Free cash flow reached 18.0% of revenue, compared with 12.7% in 2022. That is stronger evidence than adjusted earnings alone because it shows money left after operating payments and investment in assets.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,676 | 3,317 | 2,710 | 2,048 | 2,458 |
| − Capital spending | 431 | 419 | 363 | 299 | 404 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,245 | 2,898 | 2,347 | 1,749 | 2,054 |
| − Stock pay | 263 | 260 | 250 | 125 | 197 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,982 | 2,638 | 2,097 | 1,624 | 1,857 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow matches ours, but our real free cash flow is lower because we subtract stock pay, which gives employees part of the company even though no cash leaves today.
What does an investor pay for Emerson?
Free-cash-flow yield is 3.6%, compared with a stated real free-cash-flow yield of 3.3%. Free cash flow can repay debt, fund acquisitions, or support dividends and buybacks; the 1.4% dividend yield measures only what shareholders receive directly. “Real” free cash flow has no clear meaning here until its adjustment is defined.