KDP earnings: guidance and what to watch
The next KDP results are expected on November 3, 2026. Watch whether U.S. coffee demand and second-half cash generation improve.
What has KDP guided for 2026?
KDP’s weighted forecast reaches $42.37 by October 2029, but that outcome hinges on durable earnings, cash conversion, deleveraging and a workable separation. Management guides to $25.9–$26.4 billion of 2026 net sales and 4%–6% constant-currency sales growth for the legacy business. Its 2026 pro-forma leverage ratio is 4.1x.
| The period guided | Low | High | The date it was given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| net sales | Year to Dec 2026 | 25.9 | 26.4 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| constant currency Adjusted diluted EPS growth | Year to Dec 2026 | Aug 6, 2026 | ||
| constant currency net sales growth for KDP’s legacy business | Year to Dec 2026 | 4.0% | 6.0% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| constant currency Adjusted diluted EPS growth for KDP’s legacy business | Year to Dec 2026 | 4.0% | 6.0% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| foreign currency translation tailwind to net sales and EPS growth (percentage points) | Year to Dec 2026 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| pro-forma management leverage ratio | Year to Dec 2026 | 4.1x | 4.1x | Aug 6, 2026 |
What this means. The blank earnings-per-share growth range is still guidance because the company only said it expects growth in the low double digits without giving exact numbers.
Has KDP kept its past promises?
KDP also has an operating record to test. In February 2025, it targeted mid-single-digit sales growth and high-single-digit adjusted earnings-per-share growth, excluding currency movements. For 2025, it reported 8.6% adjusted sales growth and 7.3% adjusted earnings growth, which management called consistent with guidance. It has not, however, met the original separation timetable: completion moved from the end of 2026 to early 2027.
What has KDP’s last eight quarters shown?
KDP has recently delivered reliably against quarterly expectations. Through June 2026, it beat earnings estimates six times and matched them twice across eight quarters. It beat sales estimates seven times and missed once.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,309 | 3,976 | 4,499 | 4,306 | 4,163 | 3,635 | 4,070 | 3,891 |
| Gross margin | 41.9% | 52.8% | 53.8% | 54.3% | 54.2% | 54.6% | 55.9% | 55.0% |
| Operating income | 628 | 756 | 881 | 995 | 898 | 801 | 63 | 902 |
| Net income | 142 | 270 | 353 | 662 | 547 | 517 | -144 | 616 |
| EPS, diluted | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.38 | -0.11 | 0.45 |
| = Free cash flow | 714 | 165 | 564 | 527 | 325 | 89 | 684 | 503 |
What this means. The company reports 142 million dollars of profit, but preferred investors receive part of it, leaving only 60 million dollars for common shareholders.
What should KDP watchers look for next?
The next scheduled checkpoint is November 3, when KDP reports the September quarter. Investors should look for second-half cash generation, signs of improvement in U.S. coffee, and whether the acquisition is producing repeatable profit rather than timing benefits.