Whitbread stock forecast
Whitbread's weighted forecast reaches 2,685.24p in October 2027. Whitbread's outcome hinges on cash conversion, room returns and Germany's progress.
Where could Whitbread's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast reaches 2,685.24p in October 2027, with the outcome hinging on cash conversion, room returns and Germany’s progress. It reaches 3,647.69p in October 2029.
The October 2027 weighted price implies a 7% total return from today. The October 2029 weighted price implies a 51% total return. The bear case carries 30%. The base case carries 50%, and the bull case 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 2304.63 (-8 %) | 2208.23 (-10 %) | 2441.99 (+1 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 2762.90 (+11 %) | 3214.67 (+32 %) | 3720.82 (+55 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 3061.99 (+22 %) | 4006.94 (+63 %) | 5273.39 (+116 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 2685.24 (+7 %) | 3071.19 (+26 %) | 3647.69 (+51 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Whitbread's forecast?
EBITDA is the central operating judgement. The base case starts at £1,090m. It reaches £1,150m in October 2028 and £1,210m in October 2029, against FY26 adjusted EBITDA of £1,075.1m. Bear EBITDA falls to £995m in 2028; bull EBITDA reaches £1,350m by 2029. Recent accommodation sales rose 3% and RevPAR rose 2%, while management guides to £60m of efficiencies and substantial room openings.
The bear case gives cost inflation, business rates and the restaurant transition more weight. Business-rate costs add £35m, while the transition reduces adjusted PBT by £40m. The bull case assumes efficiencies, room openings and German maturation overcome those pressures. Germany’s £8m segment loss, despite £22m of mature-cohort site profit, explains why the upside is not central.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,090 (1,025 / 1,120) | 1,150 (995 / 1,230) | 1,210 (1,020 / 1,350) |
| Shares (millions) | 168 (168 / 168) | 165 (169 / 161) | 160 (169 / 154) |
| Dividends per share | 0.97 (0.70 / 1.02) | 0.97 (0.50 / 1.07) | 0.97 (0.40 / 1.12) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 4.70 (4.30 / 4.90) | 4.90 (4.10 / 5.40) | 5.10 (4.20 / 6.00) |
| Net debt | 476 (529 / 341) | 331 (350 / 175) | 203 (167 / -5.20) |
How much cash does Whitbread really make?
Capital spending was £675.4m. Lease principal payments were £172.9m. Together they turned operating cash into free cash flow of negative £95.5m. Subtracting £16.7m of share-based pay gives analytical “real” free cash flow of negative £112.2m, because shares still transfer value to employees even without immediate cash leaving.
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | -95.5 | 127 | 222.3 | 147.2 | 160.1 |
| − Stock pay | 16.7 | 16.8 | 15.8 | 17.7 | 12.9 |
| = Real free cash flow | -112.2 | 110.2 | 206.5 | 129.5 | 147.2 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | -3.3% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 9.4% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -3.8% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 8.6% |
What this means. The business generated cash from daily work, but its free cash flow is negative because spending on equipment and lease payments was greater than that cash.