Hydro One stock forecast
Hydro One’s weighted forecast is C$51.83 in October 2027 and C$54.63 in October 2029, including dividends. Hydro One’s outlook hinges on the OEB’s decision and whether approved investment becomes earning assets without excessive financing pressure or dilution.
Where could Hydro One’s shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast leaves Hydro One close to today’s price in one year, with moderate gains thereafter. The weighted price is C$51.83 in October 2027, or 0% including dividends, C$52.30 in October 2028, or 4%, and C$54.63 in October 2029, or 11%. Today’s price is C$53.19.
The range is wide because the 2029 bear case reaches C$38.51 while the bull case reaches C$71.61. The probabilities are 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull, so the base case is the central path but not a guarantee.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 44.49 (-14 %) | 40.23 (-19 %) | 38.51 (-19 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 52.50 (+2 %) | 53.38 (+6 %) | 55.78 (+14 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 59.16 (+14 %) | 64.42 (+27 %) | 71.61 (+44 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 51.83 (+0 %) | 52.30 (+4 %) | 54.63 (+11 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull outcomes, not another separate prediction.
What has to go right or wrong for Hydro One?
The bear case gives C$1,370 million, C$1,360 million and C$1,380 million. It assumes slower approvals, financing costs and normalization of an unquantified property-tax benefit. The bull case gives C$1,480 million, C$1,600 million and C$1,730 million, because stronger demand, timely approvals and faster project conversion support roughly 8% annual growth. Hydro One’s net income rose from C$965 million in 2021 to C$1,339 million in 2025, but the path was uneven, so the forecast does not treat growth as automatic.
The bear case requires regulatory limits, delayed projects and financing pressure to reinforce one another. A restrictive OEB decision would leave less investment earning an allowed return, while construction keeps cash flow negative and debt rising. Reliability already missed reported targets, adding execution risk. The share price reaches C$44.49 in 2027 and C$38.51 in 2029. The 25% probability reflects credible downside, but the regulated earnings base makes it less likely than the base case.
How much cash does Hydro One really make?
Depreciation spreads an asset’s cost over its useful life, while cash leaves when the asset is built. That is why net income of C$1,339 million could coexist with operating cash of C$2,695 million. Cash capital spending was C$3,050 million, producing free cash flow of negative C$355 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,695 | 2,534 | 2,412 | 2,260 | 2,149 |
| − Capital spending | 3,050 | 2,808 | 2,476 | 2,086 | 2,071 |
| = Free cash flow | -355 | -274 | -64 | 174 | 78 |
| − Stock pay | 24 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| = Real free cash flow | -379 | -291 | -72 | 170 | 74 |
What this means. The company gives employees shares instead of cash, so we subtract that value because it reduces what shareholders own even though no money left the bank.
What does an investor pay for Hydro One today?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 53.185 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 22.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -1.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -1.2% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.7% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes the company’s debt after subtracting its cash, showing what buying the whole business would cost.