Emera stock forecast
The weighted forecast puts Emera at C$50.26 in October 2027 and C$64.12 in October 2029, an 8% return including dividends. It hinges on timely rate recovery, financing capacity and merger execution.
Where could Emera's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is C$50.26 in October 2027, a -21% return. It rises to C$64.12 in October 2029, an 8% return including dividends. The bear case has 35% probability. The base case has 45%. The bull case has 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35 % | 56.63 (-12 %) | 61.88 (+0 %) | 57.97 (-1 %) |
| Base | 45 % | 43.43 (-31 %) | 55.41 (-9 %) | 58.46 (-0 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 54.48 (-15 %) | 76.02 (+22 %) | 87.64 (+43 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 50.26 (-21 %) | 61.80 (+0 %) | 64.12 (+8 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Emera?
The base case reaches C$1.2 billion in October 2027, C$1.55 billion in October 2028 and C$1.7 billion in October 2029. It assumes modest standalone growth, then an estimated merger contribution after the expected late-2027 closing. The bear case gives C$1.05 billion, C$1.25 billion and C$1.28 billion as recovery lags and financing costs absorb most acquired earnings. The bull case gives C$1.3 billion, C$1.75 billion and C$1.95 billion because Florida recovery, project returns and the merger arrive promptly. Management targets 5%–7% adjusted-EPS growth through 2030, but first-half 2026 adjusted EPS was nearly flat year over year. That supports growth, not a smooth earnings path.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 1,200 (1,050 / 1,300) | 1,550 (1,250 / 1,750) | 1,700 (1,280 / 1,950) |
| Shares (millions) | 525 (315 / 525) | 532 (323 / 530) | 538 (331 / 534) |
| Dividends per share | 2.96 (2.96 / 2.96) | 2.99 (2.96 / 3.02) | 3.02 (2.96 / 3.08) |
| Price to earnings | 19.00 (17.00 / 22.00) | 19.00 (16.00 / 23.00) | 18.50 (15.00 / 24.00) |
What this means. The numbers in brackets show lower and higher possible outcomes than the main estimate.
How much cash does Emera really make?
Free cash flow is the cash left after capital spending. In 2025, Emera generated about C$1.8 billion from operations and spent about C$3.5 billion on investment, leaving real free cash flow negative by C$1,819 million. That can be rational for a utility building assets that may earn for decades, but the gap must be funded with borrowing, equity, asset sales or existing cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,802 | 2,646 | 2,241 | 913 | 1,185 |
| − Capital spending | 3,532 | 3,151 | 2,937 | 2,596 | 2,359 |
| = Free cash flow | -1,730 | -505 | -696 | -1,683 | -1,174 |
| − Stock pay | 89 | 52 | 24 | 26 | 34 |
| = Real free cash flow | -1,819 | -557 | -720 | -1,709 | -1,208 |
What this means. Free cash flow is negative because the company spent more on equipment than its daily business brought in, and real free cash flow is lower because share-based pay gives employees part of the company.
What does an investor pay for Emera today?
The trailing P/E uses reported earnings; Emera’s last-twelve-month multiple is 21.1x. Its next-twelve-month multiple is 18.1x, based on expected earnings. Think of buying a bakery for $100: if it earned $5 last year, you paid 20 times its profit, but if you expect $6 next year, the forward multiple looks lower. The bakery has not become cheaper; the calculation assumes higher earnings. Emera’s apparent discount therefore disappears if growth does not arrive.