Fortis stock forecast
Fortis's weighted forecast reaches C$84.15 in October 2029, with the base case receiving 55% probability. It hinges on timely TEP recovery and ITC construction.
Where could Fortis's shares be by 2029?
The weighted path reaches C$76.97 in October 2027 and C$79.97 in October 2028. It reaches C$84.15 in October 2029, a 19% total return with dividends. The last-date range is C$57.47 to C$114.49. Today's price is C$77.52.
The bull case requires timely TEP recovery, firm large-load demand and on-schedule ITC construction. It reaches C$114.49 by October 2029 from C$90.91 in October 2027. Its probability is 20% because prospective demand remains conditional and some ITC projects are not yet under construction. The base case receives 55%: it requires plan delivery, not flawless execution, and is supported by regulated investment, analyst expectations and the dividend record.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 60.39 (-19 %) | 57.03 (-20 %) | 57.47 (-16 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 79.44 (+6 %) | 82.33 (+13 %) | 85.25 (+21 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 90.91 (+21 %) | 102.15 (+39 %) | 114.49 (+58 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 76.97 (+3 %) | 79.97 (+10 %) | 84.15 (+19 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Fortis?
The C$28.8 billion capital plan targets 7% annual rate-base growth, supporting the base path. The bear row reaches only C$2,084 million because rate lag, affordability limits, project delays and financing costs persist. The bull row reaches C$2,516 million because TEP recovery and ITC investment convert into earnings faster. TEP's rate decision is scheduled for November 17, 2026, making it a dated catalyst.
How much cash does Fortis really make?
Capital spending is different because Fortis must pay contractors to build or renew networks. The result is negative free cash flow before dividends. Fortis also shows a stricter “real” free-cash-flow view by treating stock compensation as an economic cost. Interest paid is already reflected in operating cash, so subtracting it again would count the same outflow twice.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,062 | 3,882 | 3,545 | 3,074 | 2,907 |
| − Capital spending | 6,234 | 5,218 | 4,169 | 3,865 | 3,386 |
| = Free cash flow | -792 | -481 | |||
| − Stock pay | 150 | 82 | 66 | 41 | 100 |
| = Real free cash flow | -833 | -581 |
What does an investor pay for Fortis today?
P/E divides the share price by earnings per share, showing what investors pay for one dollar of profit attributable to each share. Trailing earnings cover the previous twelve months, while forward earnings are estimates of the next twelve. Fortis’s 2025 reported earnings included C$63 million of disposal losses. Adjusted EPS was C$3.53 rather than reported EPS of C$3.40, and the DRIP means future profit may be divided among more shares.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 77.52 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 20.0x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 6.1x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.7x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.3% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes the company's debt, while subtracting its cash.