GM stock forecast
GM's weighted path reaches $117.00 in October 2029, after $82.23 in October 2027. It hinges on vehicle pricing and cash generation enduring.
Where could GM's shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted path is modestly positive, but the possible outcomes remain wide. The weighted price is $82.23 in October 2027, a 1% total return including dividends. It reaches $98.00 in October 2028, a 21% return. By October 2029, it reaches $117.00, a 45% return.
At that last date, the bear case gives $71.86 and the bull case gives $197.05. Today’s price is $82.25. The bear receives 35% probability. The base receives 50%, while the bull receives 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35 % | 56.62 (-30 %) | 62.52 (-23 %) | 71.86 (-11 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 90.53 (+11 %) | 105.82 (+31 %) | 124.59 (+55 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 114.33 (+40 %) | 154.69 (+90 %) | 197.05 (+144 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 82.23 (+1 %) | 98.00 (+21 %) | 117.00 (+45 %) |
What has to go right—or wrong—for GM?
The bear case requires weaker affordability, heavier discounts and lower production, so fixed costs are absorbed over fewer vehicles. EV charges, settlements and higher GM Financial losses then constrain cash and buybacks. It leads to $56.62 in October 2027 and $71.86 in October 2029. Its 35% probability exceeds the specialists’ 30% bear view because these risks could reinforce one another.
The bull case requires successful Silverado and Sierra launches, durable pricing, better factory utilization, faster warranty and EV savings, and growing software renewals. It leads to $114.33 in October 2027 and $197.05 in October 2029. Its probability is 15% because the measured-profit path reaches its highest level only if several uncertain improvements persist through 2029.
How much cash does GM really make?
Automotive cash from operations was $18,733 million. After $9,241 million of capital spending, the simple remainder was $9,492 million. Capital spending keeps factories productive and can also fund future programs, but GM does not provide a clean maintenance-versus-growth split.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 18,733 | 23,939 | 20,828 | 19,094 | 9,693 |
| Capital spending | 9,241 | 10,711 | 10,684 | 9,007 | 7,389 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 9,492 | 13,228 | 10,144 | 10,087 | 2,304 |
| Stock-based pay | 740 | 2,019 | |||
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 9,404 | 8,068 | |||
| Free cash flow per share (calculated) | 9.76 | 11.72 | 7.41 | 6.94 | 1.57 |
What does an investor pay for GM today?
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 82.25 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 41.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 5.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 14.7% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.9% |