Gilead Sciences stock forecast
Gilead Sciences' weighted forecast is $141.61 by October 2029, a 1% gain. Gilead Sciences' path hinges on durable HIV cash flow and returns from new products and acquisitions.
Where could Gilead Sciences' shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast is $124.65 by October 2027, a 15% loss. It reaches $141.61 by October 2029, a 1% gain. Bear probability is 25%; base probability is 55%. Bull probability is 20%. The October 2029 range runs from $57.85 to $247.96.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 84.17 (-42 %) | 70.80 (-49 %) | 57.85 (-55 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 130.86 (-11 %) | 135.92 (-5 %) | 141.00 (+1 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 158.17 (+7 %) | 200.49 (+38 %) | 247.96 (+72 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 124.65 (-15 %) | 132.55 (-7 %) | 141.61 (+1 %) |
What drives Gilead Sciences' base, bear and bull cases?
The base holds margins near the 2025 adjusted level of about 34.8%, because HIV remains strong and acquired-research charges fade. Management guided to 9%–10% HIV growth and $1bn of Yeztugo sales for 2026. The bear assumes rising discounts, weak Yeztugo persistence, declining Veklury and limited oncology gains. The bull assumes prevention, oncology and cell therapy improve together. Adjusted earnings beat consensus in all eight reviewed quarters, supporting the base case but not guaranteeing the bull case.
The bear case requires weakness in Gilead’s largest franchise and several pipeline disappointments at once. HIV growth slows as discounts rise, Yeztugo repeat use falls short, oncology contributes little and cell therapy continues to decline. Debt then limits buybacks, while investors apply a lower multiple.
How much cash does Gilead Sciences really make?
In 2025, operating cash flow was $10,019 million. Capital spending was $563 million, leaving free cash flow of $9,456 million, or 32.1% of revenue. Free cash flow nevertheless declined from $10,305 million in 2024 while reported net income rose sharply. The difference comes from timing and non-cash accounting.
Stock-based compensation was $894 million. Gilead adds it back because issuing shares does not immediately use cash, but employees still receive part of the business. Subtracting it gives an analytical “real free cash flow” figure of $8,562 million, or 29.1% of revenue.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 10,019 | 10,828 | 8,006 | 9,072 | 11,384 |
| Of which, freed from working capital | 489 | ||||
| Of which, tied up in working capital | 3,948 | 880 | 2,303 | 1,763 | |
| − Capital spending | 563 | 523 | 585 | 728 | 579 |
| = Free cash flow | 9,456 | 10,305 | 7,421 | 8,344 | 10,805 |
| − Stock pay | 894 | 835 | 766 | 637 | 635 |
| = Real free cash flow | 8,562 | 9,470 | 6,655 | 7,707 | 10,170 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 9,456 | 10,305 | 7,421 | 8,344 | 10,805 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 32.1% | 35.8% | 27.4% | 30.6% | 39.6% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 29.1% | 32.9% | 24.5% | 28.3% | 37.2% |
What does an investor pay for Gilead Sciences today?
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 150.43 |
| Market value (calculated) | 186,526.45 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 209,593.45 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | not meaningful |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.1x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 6.9x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 15.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.6% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.2% |