Fastenal dividend: cash flow and yield
Fastenal's forecast dividend rises from $1.10 to $1.16 in the base case and reaches $1.24 in the third year; its bear case holds $1.04 and its bull case reaches $1.44. The dividend was covered in Q3, when disclosed free cash flow was $349.6 million against $298.2 million of dividends.
How much does Fastenal pay per share?
Dividends rise from $1.10 to $1.16 in the base case. They reach $1.24 in the third year. The bear case holds the current rate at $1.04, while the bull case reaches $1.44. The base path follows regular dividend increases, but excludes a special dividend because the 2023 payment was exceptional.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 1,616 (1,411 / 1,652) | 1,765 (1,414 / 1,889) | 1,905 (1,450 / 2,150) |
| Dividends per share | 1.10 (1.04 / 1.16) | 1.16 (1.04 / 1.32) | 1.24 (1.04 / 1.44) |
| Price to earnings | 37.00 (32.00 / 42.00) | 35.00 (29.00 / 42.00) | 33.00 (27.00 / 40.00) |
Is Fastenal's dividend covered by its cash?
Free cash flow is cash left after operating needs and investment. Fastenal’s free-cash-flow yield is 1.8%, while its dividend yield is 2.0%. Accounting profit can arrive first: Fastenal might deliver $100 of bolts today, record the sale, and collect the money next month. During rapid growth, unpaid invoices and inventory absorb cash; receivables rose 19.9% year over year. Q3 operating cash flow was $421.6 million, while disclosed free cash flow was $349.6 million against $298.2 million of dividends. The dividend was covered in that quarter, but future growth remains the larger part of the investment case.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 1,050.6 | 946.8 | 1,259.9 | 767.2 | 613.5 |
| − Dividends paid | 1,004.2 | 893.3 | 1,016.8 | 711.3 | 643.7 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 237.8 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 46.4 | 53.5 | 243.1 |
What this means. In 2022 and 2021, the company paid shareholders more cash than the business generated, so it had to use savings or borrow money.
What could change Fastenal's dividend?
October sales, due November 5, 2026, will show whether September’s slower daily-sales growth was temporary or a demand warning. Year-end 2026 results will test whether signings, Digital Footprint, and the investment program meet guidance, and whether installed systems produce profitable demand. Collections and inventory will determine how quickly growth funds investment and shareholder payments; the next scheduled note repayment is $50.0 million on May 15, 2027.
What is Fastenal's dividend yield today?
At $52.00 a share, Fastenal’s price assumes that dependable earnings will keep growing for years.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 52.00 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.8% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.0% |
What this means. Enterprise value is slightly lower than market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt.