Expeditors stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Expeditors' weighted price is $179.26 in October 2029, with 30% probability to the bear case, 52% to the base case, and 18% to the bull case. It hinges on air capacity, customer rates, customs filings, and restructuring savings.
Where could Expeditors' shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $160.45 in October 2027, a -18% return including dividends. It is $179.26 in October 2029, a -7% return including dividends. The forecast assigns 30% probability to the bear case and 52% to the base case. The bull case gets 18%. The weighted forecast still implies a loss by October 2029.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 106.14 (-46%) | 105.95 (-45%) | 105.14 (-45%) |
| Base | 52% | 167.79 (-15%) | 178.16 (-9%) | 177.95 (-8%) |
| Bull | 18% | 229.77 (+17%) | 266.05 (+36%) | 306.56 (+57%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 160.45 (-18%) | 172.32 (-11%) | 179.26 (-7%) |
What has to go right or wrong for Expeditors?
The bear case requires air capacity to loosen, customer rates to fall faster than carrier costs, and customs filings to fade. Flat ocean volume provides little offset. Delayed restructuring savings or service disruption would further weaken operating conversion. The price reaches $106.14 in October 2027 and $105.14 by October 2029. Its probability is 30% because operating income previously fell from $1,824.371M to $939.933M across the freight cycle.
The bull case needs constrained aircraft capacity, stronger ocean and ground volumes, durable customs growth, and restructuring savings without service damage. It reaches $229.77 initially and $306.56 by October 2029. Its 18% probability reflects the number of favorable conditions that must persist, including a premium valuation and borrowing by the final year.
How much cash does Expeditors really make?
A stricter measure subtracts stock compensation. The expense is not a cash payment, but it gives employees ownership and can dilute existing shareholders. Deducting it produces “real free cash flow,” an analytical measure of cash after recognizing that economic cost.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,006,501 | 723,361 | 1,053,191 | 2,129,675 | 868,494 |
| − Capital spending | 53,101 | 40,466 | 39,314 | 86,824 | 36,247 |
| = Free cash flow | 953,400 | 682,895 | 1,013,877 | 2,042,851 | 832,247 |
| − Stock pay | 69,231 | 64,364 | 58,399 | 64,397 | 69,385 |
| = Real free cash flow | 884,169 | 618,531 | 955,478 | 1,978,454 | 762,862 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.0% | 5.8% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 4.6% |
What this means. Real free cash flow subtracts stock pay even though no cash was spent, because giving employees shares reduces the owners’ share of the company.
What does an investor pay for Expeditors today?
Operating profitability declined from 2021 through 2025 even as revenue recovered in 2024 and 2025. EPS was nearly unchanged in 2025 from 2024, while diluted shares declined as buybacks exceeded dividends. The company’s free cash flow yield is 3.7%; its real free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Buyback yield is 2.6% versus a 0.8% dividend yield. At $198.58 per share, trailing P/E is 28.9x. Next-twelve-month P/E is 25.1x.
| Today (Oct 21, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 198.58 |
| Market value (calculated) | 25,813,538 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 28.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 25.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.4% |
What this means. Enterprise value is lower than market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt.