Elevance stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted forecast is $395.73 by October 2027, a 7% loss including dividends. It hinges on medical costs, rate recovery, margins and Carelon execution.
Where could Elevance's shares be by October 2027?
The verdict is a recovery case: the price can move lower first and higher later if Medicaid rates catch up, insurance margins improve and Carelon continues to produce earnings. The weighted forecast is $395.73 by October 2027, a 7% loss including dividends. It reaches $482.44 by October 2029, a 16% return. The bear case carries 30% probability, the base case 50%, and the bull case 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 290.74 (-31 %) | 265.01 (-36 %) | 256.26 (-36 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 411.77 (-4 %) | 443.79 (+5 %) | 502.42 (+21 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 513.10 (+20 %) | 631.52 (+49 %) | 771.77 (+83 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 395.73 (-7 %) | 427.70 (+2 %) | 482.44 (+16 %) |
What has to go right for Elevance, and what could go wrong?
The bear case holds revenue growth near 3% and keeps margins below 3%, producing earnings of $5,433 million in the first period. The bull case assumes 5%–6% growth and margins reaching 3.65%, producing $8,468 million at the final date. The base is supported by stable historical net income and management’s target, while the downside reflects Health Benefits operating gain falling from $6,888 million in 2023 to $4,158 million in 2025. CarelonRx’s gain, which reached $2,418 million in 2025, supports the upside.
How much cash does Elevance really make?
Cash tells a harsher story than net income. Elevance produced $4,290 million of operating cash in 2025 against $5,662 million of net income. Receivables absorbed $2,526 million, and property and equipment purchases used $1,116 million.
Price at each date uses earnings from the preceding twelve months, divided by shares at that date, with the chosen P/E applied. Dividends are added when calculating total returns. Shares fall through repurchases but rise through employee compensation.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted shares, weighted average | 224.6 | 232.9 | 237.4 | 242.8 | 246.8 |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 220.723898 | 227.479695 | 233.071088 | 237.958067 | 241.770746 |
| Diluted shares (average of the year), change (calculated) | -3.6% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -1.6% | -2.9% |
What this means. The two share counts differ because diluted shares include shares that could be created during the year, while shares outstanding counts only actual shares at year end.
What does an investor pay for Elevance today?
A P/E ratio divides a share price by earnings per share. “Trailing” uses the last twelve months, “forward” uses expected future earnings, and “core” or “adjusted” earnings remove items management considers unusual. The same share price can therefore produce different P/Es. A higher P/E can even signal falling earnings rather than greater confidence, because the denominator has shrunk.
| Today (Oct 22, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 434.13 |
| Market value (calculated) | 94,149.46 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 18.5x |
| P/E on core earnings, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.6x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.6% |
What this means. The price-to-earnings number for the next 12 months uses analysts’ expected profit, so it is a forecast rather than money the company has already earned.