CVS stock forecast
The weighted path points to $72.98 in October 2027 and $86.83 in October 2029. It hinges on a durable Aetna recovery and profitable Caremark adaptation.
Where could CVS's shares be by 2029?
The weighted path points to $72.98 in October 2027 and $86.83 in October 2029, hinging on a durable Aetna recovery and profitable Caremark adaptation. The first outcome is a 16% loss including dividends. The last is a 5% gain.
Bear probability is 30% and base probability is 50%. Bull probability is 20%.
It puts October 2027 at $72.98, a 16% loss including dividends. October 2028 is $79.34, a 6% loss. October 2029 reaches $86.83, a 5% gain.
Today’s price is $90.39. The October 2029 range runs from $41.88 in the bear case to $137.06 in the bull case.
The table shows how the 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull probabilities shape those outcomes.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 54.29 (-37 %) | 48.30 (-41 %) | 41.88 (-46 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 75.75 (-13 %) | 84.21 (-1 %) | 93.72 (+13 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 94.10 (+7 %) | 113.75 (+32 %) | 137.06 (+61 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 72.98 (-16 %) | 79.34 (-6 %) | 86.83 (+5 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average expected value after giving each case a weight based on its probability.
How much cash does CVS really make?
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 10,639 | 9,107 | 13,426 | 16,177 | 18,265 |
| − Capital spending | 2,832 | 2,781 | 3,031 | 2,727 | 2,520 |
| = Free cash flow | 7,807 | 6,326 | 10,395 | 13,450 | 15,745 |
| − Stock pay | 535 | 540 | 588 | 447 | 484 |
| = Real free cash flow | 7,272 | 5,786 | 9,807 | 13,003 | 15,261 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because share-based pay uses no cash today but gives employees part ownership, so we count its cost.
What does an investor pay for CVS today?
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 90.39 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 23.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 10.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 6.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 6.3% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.9% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it adds the company's debt and subtracts its cash to show what the whole business costs.