DoorDash stock forecast
DoorDash's weighted forecast is $122.89 in October 2027 and $148.04 in October 2029, with Bear and base probabilities of 30% and 50% and Bull probability of 20%. DoorDash's forecast hinges on integration, local density and spending producing durable operating improvement.
Where could DoorDash's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $122.89 in October 2027, a 37% loss. It is $148.04 in October 2029, a 24% loss. Bear and base probabilities are 30% and 50%. Bull probability is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 53.62 (-72 %) | 59.53 (-69 %) | 66.07 (-66 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 119.53 (-39 %) | 131.51 (-32 %) | 144.65 (-26 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 235.18 (+21 %) | 256.39 (+32 %) | 279.45 (+44 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 122.89 (-37 %) | 134.89 (-31 %) | 148.04 (-24 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for DoorDash?
The base case assumes the platform rolls out, but benefits arrive gradually. Acquired scale supports revenue while investment, labor costs and dilution absorb much of the operating improvement. The price reaches $119.53 in October 2027 and $144.65 in October 2029. Its 50% probability reflects positive FY2025 EBIT and sustained marketplace growth, balanced against limited evidence of stable EBIT margins.
How much cash does DoorDash really make?
Cash flow follows payments, while profit follows accounting recognition. In 2025, operations produced $2,431 million of cash while net income was $935 million. After $605 million of capital investment, DoorDash reported $1,826 million of free cash flow.
Stock compensation is an ownership cost even when no cash leaves the bank. Employees received $1,051 million in stock compensation in 2025. Subtracting that from free cash flow produces an analytical “real free cash flow” of $775 million. It is not an official accounting measure, but it shows how much of the cash result remains after recognizing the shares granted to employees.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,431 | 2,132 | 1,673 | 367 | 692 |
| − Capital spending | 605 | 330 | 324 | 346 | 237 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,826 | 1,802 | 1,349 | 21 | 455 |
| − Stock pay | 1,051 | 1,099 | 1,088 | 889 | 486 |
| = Real free cash flow | 775 | 703 | 261 | -868 | -31 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow matches ours, but real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares gives away part of the company even though no cash leaves today.
What does an investor pay for DoorDash today?
P/E means the share price divided by profit per share. DoorDash’s trailing P/E of 101.8 implies roughly $1.91 of recent earnings per share. Its forward P/E of 41.2 implies about $4.72 of expected earnings, so the shares look cheaper only if that forecast proves true. The comparison also works only if both figures use the same kind of profit, including expenses such as share compensation and acquisition costs.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 194.44 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 101.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 41.2x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 5.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.9% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts’ forecast profit, not profit already earned, so it could be wrong.