Carnival earnings: guidance and what to watch
Carnival's next results are expected on December 18, 2026. Watch whether stronger bookings convert into cash while Carnival funds investment, debt repair and shareholder returns.
What has Carnival guided for FY2026?
For the financial year ending November 2026, management forecasts adjusted net income of $3,080 million and diluted adjusted earnings of $2.24 per share. Adjusted profit excludes selected gains, losses and expenses, so it is an estimate of performance rather than money available to spend. Carnival must still fund its $1.08 billion interest expense, ships, debt repayment and working capital.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net yields (current dollars; FY2026) | Year to Nov 2026 | 3.8% | 3.8% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Net yields (constant currency; FY2026) | Year to Nov 2026 | 2.3% | 2.3% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD (constant currency; FY2026) | Year to Nov 2026 | 2.2% | 2.2% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (FY2026) | Year to Nov 2026 | 7,140 | 7,140 | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Adjusted net income (FY2026) | Year to Nov 2026 | 3,080 | 3,080 | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Adjusted earnings per share - diluted (FY2026) | Year to Nov 2026 | 2.24 | 2.24 | Sep 29, 2026 |
Has Carnival kept its past promises?
Carnival set 2026 SEA Change targets in 2023: higher EBITDA per berth day, adjusted ROIC of 12% and lower carbon intensity. By June 2025, EBITDA per berth day had risen 52%, and adjusted ROIC was above 12.5%. Carnival also reported achieving its carbon target early. Those results support management’s credibility.
How have Carnival's revenue and profit trended?
| Aug 2026 | May 2026 | Feb 2026 | Nov 2025 | Aug 2025 | May 2025 | Feb 2025 | Nov 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,435 | 6,663 | 6,165 | 6,330 | 8,153 | 6,328 | 5,810 | 5,938 |
| Gross margin | 36.2% | 25.7% | 24.8% | 26.8% | 37.4% | 27.7% | 23.9% | 24.4% |
| Operating income | 2,220 | 851 | 607 | 735 | 2,271 | 934 | 543 | 561 |
| Net income | 1,920 | 537 | 258 | 422 | 1,852 | 565 | -78 | 303 |
| EPS, diluted | 1.40 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 0.31 | 1.33 | 0.42 | -0.06 | 0.23 |
| = Free cash flow | 712 | 1,755 | 697 | 12 | 736 | 1,541 | 318 | 319 |
What should investors watch in Carnival's next results?
The results discussion should provide fuller 2027 assumptions for yield and capital spending. Investors should compare reported yield with the figure adjusted for Carnival Rewards, then compare higher investment with operating cash. Carnival Festivale’s planned May 2027 arrival will also test whether construction spending becomes paying capacity on schedule.
The central test is whether Carnival can make these promises advance together: higher earnings, funded ships and upgrades, lower financial strain, and shareholder returns supported by cash left after investment.