Carnival stock forecast
Carnival's weighted case is $40.07 per share in October 2027 and $49.47 in October 2029. Carnival's forecast hinges on strong bookings converting into profitable sailings while Carnival funds investment and repairs its balance sheet.
Where could Carnival's shares be by October 2029?
Weighted price is $40.07 in October 2027 and $44.52 in October 2028. It reaches $49.47 in October 2029. The corresponding total returns are 53% and 72% at the first two dates, then 92% at the last date.
By October 2029, the bear case reaches $25.43 while the bull case reaches $93.44, against today's $26.45. The weighting is 40% bear, 45% base and 15% bull, reflecting strong bookings but also Carnival's debt, investment needs and exposure to fuel and competition.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 40% | 28.34 (+8%) | 26.51 (+1%) | 25.43 (-2%) |
| Base | 45% | 44.85 (+72%) | 50.56 (+96%) | 56.18 (+119%) |
| Bull | 15% | 56.97 (+118%) | 74.39 (+187%) | 93.44 (+262%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 40.07 (+53%) | 44.52 (+72%) | 49.47 (+92%) |
What has to go right for Carnival, and what could go wrong?
The starting point is the 2026 guide of $7,140M, just below 2025 EBITDA of $7,182M, so the forecast avoids assuming automatic expansion. The base path reflects positive yield and bookings: Q3 constant-currency net yield grew 2.4%, and roughly half of 2027 was booked at record occupancy and pricing. The bear case allows discounting, fuel pressure and faster Caribbean competition to produce an initial decline; the bull case assumes firm pricing, onboard spending and efficiency convert those bookings into faster growth.
Net debt declines in the base case because EBITDA growth exceeds cash demands, despite continued distributions. The starting proxy is $22,963M after estimated later buybacks, compared with reported August net debt of $22,692M. The bear case keeps debt near $23B through high capital spending and working-capital outflows. The bull case deleverages faster because stronger EBITDA and booking inflows outweigh larger shareholder returns. Management has also flagged $1,600M of new-ship spending and non-newbuild capital spending above $2,400M.
How much cash does Carnival really make?
Net income was $2,760 million in 2025, while operating cash flow reached $6,218 million. Depreciation explains part of the difference because it lowers accounting profit without requiring another ship payment that year. Working capital can reverse the effect. In 2024, an $818 million release of credit-card reserves increased operating cash flow without increasing profit.
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 6,218 | 5,923 | 4,281 | -1,670 | -4,109 |
| − Capital spending | 3,611 | 4,626 | 3,284 | 4,940 | 3,607 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,607 | 1,297 | 997 | -6,610 | -7,716 |
| − Stock pay | 98 | 62 | 53 | 101 | 121 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,509 | 1,235 | 944 | -6,711 | -7,837 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it adds back money from export credits tied to equipment spending, while our count does not.
What does an investor pay for Carnival today?
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 26.45 |
| Market value (calculated) | 35,564.94 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 58,256.94 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 11.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 10.3x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.1% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it adds the company's debt and subtracts its cash and short-term investments.