CCEP stock forecast
CCEP's weighted scenario is 7,989.06 GBp by October 2027, for a +1% return including dividends. It hinges on profit growth, cash conversion and a sustained premium valuation.
Where could CCEP's shares be by 2029?
The weighted value is 7,989.06 GBp by October 2027, a +1% return including dividends. Scenario probabilities are 27% bear, 53% base and 20% bull. The base case needs gradual margin expansion. The bear case reflects weak volume and cash conversion.
The weighted forecast expects almost no total return in October 2027, followed by modest gains. It rises to 7% in October 2028 and 14% by October 2029, including dividends. The final range is wide: 5071.15 GBp in the bear case to 13482.06 GBp in the bull case, against 8090.00 GBp today.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 5847.51 (-26 %) | 5472.06 (-29 %) | 5071.15 (-32 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 8351.10 (+6 %) | 8522.73 (+10 %) | 8635.94 (+14 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 9920.73 (+25 %) | 11587.19 (+49 %) | 13482.06 (+75 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 7989.06 (+1 %) | 8311.94 (+7 %) | 8642.67 (+14 %) |
What has to go right—and wrong—for CCEP?
The bear case holds earnings near €1,900m before slipping to €1,890m. Revenue moves from €22.0bn to €22.5bn and then €23.0bn, while margins narrow from 8.64% to 8.22%. Weak volume, affordability pressure and cost inflation drive the stall. The bull case reaches €2,300m, €2,520m and €2,760m as revenue rises from €23.0bn to €26.2bn and margins expand from 10.00% to 10.53%. H1 comparable revenue grew 6.1%, operating profit grew 8.1% and Zero Sugar grew 10.7%, but six extra consumption days make the evidence less conclusive.
The bull case requires Zero Sugar and energy growth to broaden, productivity to beat costs and Tarlac capacity to fill quickly. Stronger cash conversion must fund investment, buybacks and debt reduction together, sustaining a premium multiple. That produces 9920.73 GBp initially and 13482.06 GBp by the final date. The 20% probability reflects the need for several uncertain outcomes to succeed simultaneously.
How much real free cash flow does CCEP make?
Profit is recorded when sales and expenses are recognised, while cash moves when customers and suppliers pay. Working capital captures that timing. In 2025 it absorbed €172 million, whereas it released €332 million in 2024. The earlier release helped cash, but cannot recur indefinitely.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,953 | 3,061 | 2,806 | 2,932 | 2,117 |
| − Capital spending | 950 | 939 | 812 | 603 | 446 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,605 | 1,716 | 1,664 | 2,046 | 1,435 |
| − Stock pay | 47 | 45 | 57 | 33 | 16 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,558 | 1,671 | 1,607 | 2,013 | 1,419 |
What do investors pay for CCEP today?
| Today (Oct 14, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 8,090 |
| Market value (calculated) | 35,577.47 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 43,612.24 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 21.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.7% |
What this means. The whole-business value is higher than the stock-market value because the company has more debt than cash.