Coca-Cola HBC stock forecast
The probability-weighted price is 4106.03 GBp in October 2027, a 5% loss including dividends, and 4632.79 GBp by October 2029, a 13% gain. It hinges on execution, because the 2029 range runs from 2708.85 GBp in the bear case to 6800.11 GBp in the bull case.
Where could Coca-Cola HBC's shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted price is 4106.03 GBp in October 2027, a 5% loss including dividends. It reaches 4311.87 GBp in October 2028, a 3% gain. By October 2029, it reaches 4632.79 GBp, a 13% gain. The 2029 range runs from 2708.85 GBp in the bear case to 6800.11 GBp in the bull case, so execution matters more than the central estimate suggests.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 26 % | 3447.23 (-20 %) | 2946.50 (-29 %) | 2708.85 (-32 %) |
| Base | 56 % | 4176.59 (-3 %) | 4485.57 (+7 %) | 4829.42 (+17 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 4838.10 (+12 %) | 5743.69 (+36 %) | 6800.11 (+63 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 4106.03 (-5 %) | 4311.87 (+3 %) | 4632.79 (+13 %) |
What has to go right for Coca-Cola HBC, and what could go wrong?
Base earnings rise from €1,173.9 million in October 2027 to €1,362 million in October 2029. The starting point is close to the analyst next-twelve-month estimate, which implies about €1,170.5 million on the forecast share count. The latest half-year supports the anchor: revenue and net income both increased year on year. The bear row declines as currency, financing and integration pressure erode margins, while the bull row accelerates on sustained volume growth and operating leverage. H1 organic cases grew 7.5%, including 26.1% growth in energy, but free cash flow fell, so stronger demand is not yet equivalent to stronger cash generation.
The bull case reaches 4838.10 GBp first and 6800.11 GBp last, with an 18% probability. It needs sustained energy and market-share gains, better utilisation, successful CCBA integration, stronger cash conversion and renewed buybacks. The volume evidence supports possibility, but the cash-flow decline makes this alignment less likely.
How much cash does Coca-Cola HBC really make?
In 2025, capital spending, lease payments and interest absorbed much of the operating cash. Stock-based pay reduced the economic remainder further because employee awards give staff a claim on future shareholder value, even though they do not consume the same cash immediately.
Management reported €700.0 million of its own free cash flow. Its bridge uses different deductions and changed in 2025 to add acquisition costs back into operating cash. That makes the measure useful as management’s view, but less useful for an unchanged comparison across years. The specialist keeps one consistent bridge and treats the company’s figure as a second lens.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,513.5 | 1,391.9 | 1,386.7 | 1,234.6 | 1,142.2 |
| − Capital spending | 752.6 | 615.4 | 610.7 | 523.4 | 506.5 |
| − Interest paid | 139.5 | 100.4 | 76.2 | 60.4 | 45.8 |
| = Free cash flow | 551.8 | 615.3 | 640.7 | 585.6 | 526.8 |
| − Stock pay | 22.1 | 15.6 | 20.4 | 16.5 | 14.9 |
| = Real free cash flow | 529.7 | 599.7 | 620.3 | 569.1 | 511.9 |
What does an investor pay for Coca-Cola HBC today?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 4426.00 |
| Market value (calculated) | 16,131.2 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 17,094.8 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 19.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.3x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.8% |
What this means. The enterprise value is higher than the market value because it also includes the company's debt after subtracting its cash.