BD stock forecast
BD's weighted forecast points to $265.17 in October 2029. It hinges on turning a repaired Alaris base and GLP-1 programs into durable earnings, margin and cash-flow growth.
Where could BD's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast points to $219.78 in October 2027 and $241.89 in October 2028. It reaches $265.17 in October 2029. Including dividends, those prices imply returns of 17% and 31% at the first two dates. The three-year return is 45%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 176.95 (-6 %) | 174.03 (-5 %) | 169.68 (-5 %) |
| Base | 57 % | 228.97 (+22 %) | 254.33 (+37 %) | 280.28 (+53 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 264.82 (+40 %) | 321.26 (+72 %) | 386.01 (+108 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 219.78 (+17 %) | 241.89 (+31 %) | 265.17 (+45 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right or wrong for BD?
The bear case holds earnings near $3.4 billion because quality actions, pricing pressure, tariffs and weak vaccine demand offset growth. The bull case reaches $3,940 million first and $4,995 million last because GLP-1 programs scale, execution improves and margins expand. Recent adjusted EPS growth and seven consecutive analyst beats support the base, but the lack of detailed launch conversion limits confidence in the bull case.
How much cash does BD really make?
BD generated $3.430 billion from continuing operating activities in fiscal 2025, down from $3.844 billion in fiscal 2024. It spent $760 million on capital expenditures in fiscal 2025, mainly on manufacturing capacity, leaving simple free cash flow of about $2.670 billion before acquisitions, dividends, debt repayment and buybacks. The dividend was $1.196 billion in fiscal 2025, so operating cash after capital spending covered it.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 776 | 1,089 | ||||||
| − Capital spending | 143 | 164 | ||||||
| = Free cash flow | 633 | 925 |
What this means. The cash figures appear only for two quarters because the company did not provide enough information to calculate the other quarters.
What does an investor pay for BD today?
Market value is what shareholders collectively own. Enterprise value estimates what it would cost to own the operating business, including the lenders’ claim. It adds debt and subtracts cash because a buyer would inherit the debt but receive the cash. Using June 30, 2026 balances, BD had US$16.808 billion of debt and about US$0.863 billion of cash, short-term investments, and restricted cash. The difference shows why the business must satisfy both shareholders and lenders.
The two P/E measures use different earnings periods. P/E means the share price divided by earnings per share. BD reported diluted EPS of US$1.64 and adjusted EPS of US$3.23 in Q3 FY2026. Amortization is an accounting charge that spreads the cost of acquired assets over time; adjusted EPS removes selected charges, so it can clarify operations but is neither GAAP earnings nor cash.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 191.75 |
| Market value (calculated) | 52,230.17 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 68,329.17 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 50.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.5x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
What this means. The much lower price-to-earnings number for the next 12 months uses analysts’ expected profits, not profits the company has already earned.