CAE stock forecast
CAE’s weighted scenario is C$30.75 in October 2027 and C$40.21 in October 2029. It hinges on execution, utilization, cash conversion and debt reduction.
Where could CAE’s shares be in October 2029?
The bear case has a 30% probability. The base case has 50%. The bull case has 20%. By FY2030, management targets C$125–150 million in annual transformation savings and C$950 million–C$1 billion of adjusted segment operating income.
The forecast expects CAE to lose value over one year, recover roughly to today’s price over two, and produce a positive return over three. The weighted price is C$30.75 in October 2027, a 10% loss including dividends. It reaches C$34.49 in October 2028, a 1% gain, then C$40.21 in October 2029, an 18% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 19.59 (-43%) | 17.66 (-48%) | 21.79 (-36%) |
| Base | 50% | 32.58 (-4%) | 37.56 (+10%) | 42.63 (+25%) |
| Bull | 20% | 42.92 (+26%) | 52.07 (+53%) | 61.79 (+81%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 30.75 (-10%) | 34.49 (+1%) | 40.21 (+18%) |
What has to go right or wrong for CAE?
The bear case gives C$650m in 2027 and C$620m in 2028, before recovering to C$650m in 2029. It assumes customer losses, defence delays and late savings. The bull case gives C$800m in 2027, C$880m in 2028 and C$960m in 2029, reflecting higher utilization, funded awards and savings approaching management’s FY2030 target.
How much cash does CAE really make?
Using the table’s convention, capital spending was C$287.8 million and lease payments were C$61.1 million in FY2026. That leaves C$443.0 million of free cash flow. The table’s “real” figure is lower because it treats C$36.7 million of stock compensation as an owner cost.
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 791.9 | 896.5 | 566.9 | 408.4 | 418.2 |
| − Capital spending | 287.8 | 356.2 | 329.8 | 268.8 | 272.2 |
| = Free cash flow | 443.0 | 480.4 | 167.6 | 56.2 | 56.5 |
| − Stock pay | 36.7 | 25.2 | 14.8 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| = Real free cash flow | 406.3 | 455.2 | 152.8 | 50.1 | 48.7 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs from ours because it follows different rules, adding some cash such as money received from investments or asset sales and, in some years, subtracting other items.
What does an investor pay for CAE today?
On October 18, 2026, C$34.10 at a 26.9x forward P/E implies approximately C$1.27 of next-12-month earnings per share. That is near the upper end of CAE’s FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance of C$1.21–C$1.28. But FY2026 adjusted EPS was C$1.41 under the updated definition, so the forward multiple does not yet prove growth against a consistent base.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 34.10 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 37.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 26.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.7% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it adds the company's debt and subtracts its cash, showing what the whole business would cost to buy.