BNY stock forecast
BNY's weighted forecast implies a 4% loss with dividends in October 2027 and a 4% gain in October 2029. It hinges on recurring fee growth, margins, buybacks and capital holding.
Where could BNY's shares be by 2029?
BNY’s price could reach $139.54 in October 2029, but only if recurring fee growth, margins, buybacks and capital hold; the nearer outcome is $133.96 in October 2027. Management raised its October 2026 operating-leverage outlook to nearly 500 basis points, with revenue growth around the midpoint of 12%–13% and adjusted expense growth around the midpoint of 7%–8%.
The weighted forecast implies a 4% loss with dividends in October 2027 and a 4% gain in October 2029. Its cases assign 30% probability to the bear case, 50% to base and 20% to bull, with October 2029 outcomes ranging from $86.70 to $206.43.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 105.28 (-24 %) | 92.60 (-31 %) | 86.70 (-34 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 141.32 (+1 %) | 142.80 (+4 %) | 144.48 (+8 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 158.57 (+13 %) | 181.50 (+32 %) | 206.43 (+51 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 133.96 (-4 %) | 135.48 (-1 %) | 139.54 (+4 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for BNY?
The base assumes moderate earnings growth with substantial dividends and buybacks. That follows Q3 revenue growth of 12% and expense growth of 8%, alongside management’s 2026 revenue and expense outlook. The bear case adds credit losses and reduces capital returns. The bull case assumes stronger fee growth, operating leverage and earnings, while capital remains sufficient for heavier repurchases.
How much cash does BNY really make?
Capital spending remains a real use of cash. BNY invests in premises, equipment and capitalized software, whose cost reaches expenses gradually through amortization. Stock-based compensation is also economically relevant because it gives employees a claim on the company, even when it does not immediately use cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 5,177 | -782 | 4,692 | 13,722 | 1,623 |
| − Stock pay | 508 | 386 | 332 | 293 | 260 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,669 | -1,168 | 4,360 | 13,429 | 1,363 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 25.8% | -4.2% | 26.5% | 83.0% | 10.2% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 23.3% | -6.3% | 24.6% | 81.2% | 8.6% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because we subtract shares given to employees as pay, even though no cash was paid, since those shares reduce shareholders’ ownership.
What does an investor pay today for BNY?
The price-to-earnings ratio compares the share price with profit per share. The price-to-book ratio compares it with accounting equity, the capital belonging to shareholders. A premium to book value can make sense if BNY repeatedly earns more on that equity than investors require.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 142.09 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 15.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.4x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.4x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.9% |
What this means. The “Today” share price is actually from October 15, because that was the latest price available when the report was prepared.