Aviva stock forecast
Aviva's weighted scenario points to 304.02p by October 2027 and 328.72p by October 2029; the bear case has 30% probability, the base case 55%, and the bull case 15%. It hinges on earnings growth, underwriting and Direct Line savings.
Where could Aviva's shares be by October 2029?
Today’s price is 708.40p. The weighted price is 304.02p by October 2027, implying a 51% total loss. It is 328.72p by October 2029, implying a 35% total loss. The bear case carries 30% probability and the base case 55%. The bull case carries 15%.
The weighted price is 304.02p in October 2027, implying a 51% total loss. It rises to 314.21p in October 2028, still a 44% loss. By October 2029, it reaches 328.72p, a 35% loss.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 207.14 (-65 %) | 179.22 (-64 %) | 192.02 (-57 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 325.38 (-48 %) | 341.75 (-39 %) | 346.13 (-32 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 419.47 (-35 %) | 483.21 (-19 %) | 538.32 (-3 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 304.02 (-51 %) | 314.21 (-44 %) | 328.72 (-35 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it is not another separate prediction.
What has to go right for Aviva, and what could go wrong?
Bear earnings fall to £734m and then £677m before recovering to £728m. Its margins are 2.7%, 2.4% and 2.5%, allowing for claims inflation, weak motor pricing and integration drag. Bull earnings reach £1,034m and £1,128m before £1,193m, on margins of 3.8%, 4.0% and 4.1%. That requires favourable claims, Wealth fees and Direct Line savings. All cases use revenue of £27.2bn, £28.2bn and £29.1bn, excluding the £195m disposal gain and £62m governance credit.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 925 (734 / 1,034) | 1,015 (677 / 1,128) | 1,077 (728 / 1,193) |
| Shares (millions) | 2,985 (3,012 / 2,958) | 2,970 (3,022 / 2,918) | 2,956 (3,033 / 2,881) |
| Dividends per share | 0.42 (0.40 / 0.44) | 0.46 (0.38 / 0.50) | 0.50 (0.38 / 0.56) |
| Price to earnings | 10.50 (8.50 / 12.00) | 10.00 (8.00 / 12.50) | 9.50 (8.00 / 13.00) |
How much does Aviva really earn and give back?
Operating own funds generation rose to £2,317 million in 2025. It measures capital created under Aviva’s Solvency II reporting, not necessarily money available for dividends. Cash remittances are different: they are payments from subsidiaries to the parent through dividends or internal-loan interest. They reached £2,077 million in 2025, while the £1.35 billion received for the Direct Line acquisition was excluded because acquisition funding is not recurring cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solvency II operating own funds generation | 2,317 | 1,655 | 1,729 | 1,540 | 1,187 |
| Solvency II operating capital generation | 2,452 | 1,468 | 1,455 | 1,352 | 1,364 |
| Cash remittances | 2,077 | 1,992 | 1,892 | 1,845 | 1,662 |
What this means. The 2021 own funds figure covers only continuing operations, so it is lower than the historical whole-group figure because sold or closed businesses are left out.
What does an investor pay for Aviva today?
The P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, says how much investors pay for one pound of annual profit. Reported earnings include investment movements, changes in the value of insurance promises and acquisition charges. Operating earnings remove or smooth some of these effects. For the six months to June 2026, Aviva reported £1,326 million of operating profit and £418 million of IFRS profit. Operating EPS was 31.8p, while basic EPS was 12.2p. Market-data “core earnings” may use different adjustments, so neither measure should be accepted without checking its definition.