L&G stock forecast
L&G's weighted scenario is 270.61 GBp in October 2027. It hinges on book value rebuilding while L&G preserves capital and delivers profitable growth.
Where could L&G's shares go?
The weighted forecast is a near-term pause followed by substantial recovery. In October 2027, the weighted price is 270.61 GBp, implying a 2% loss with dividends. In October 2028, it reaches 350.65 GBp, implying a 32% total return. By October 2029, it reaches 469.23 GBp, implying an 80% total return.
The forecast assigns the base case a 50% probability. The bear case receives 32%. The bull case receives 18%, because it requires several execution improvements at once.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 32 % | 142.29 (-45 %) | 96.69 (-53 %) | 119.30 (-39 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 320.35 (+15 %) | 435.88 (+61 %) | 563.04 (+112 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 360.58 (+28 %) | 565.36 (+105 %) | 830.74 (+202 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 270.61 (-2 %) | 350.65 (+32 %) | 469.23 (+80 %) |
What has to go right for L&G, and what could go wrong?
The base starts close to today’s 7.68 times, because management targets 6–9% Core Operating EPS growth and delivered 9% growth in 2025. The bear case reflects weaker deal economics, outflows and declining confidence. The bull case requires profitable pension-risk transfer, better asset-management flows and capital generation that supports distributions.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book value | 2,257 (1,367 / 2,117) | 2,907 (1,067 / 2,967) | 3,607 (1,267 / 3,967) |
| Shares (millions) | 5,284 (5,284 / 5,284) | 5,202 (5,297 / 5,143) | 5,125 (5,310 / 5,014) |
| Dividends per share | 0.23 (0.22 / 0.23) | 0.23 (0.21 / 0.24) | 0.24 (0.21 / 0.25) |
| Price to book value | 7.50 (5.50 / 9.00) | 7.80 (4.80 / 9.80) | 8.00 (5.00 / 10.50) |
How much cash does L&G really make?
Debt and cash-flow shortcuts are also less useful here. Insurer debt and investment assets are part of the business machinery, while EBITDA does not capture long-term policyholder obligations. Free cash flow does not cleanly represent cash available to shareholders because premiums and investment flows are integral to operations. Capital generation and cash remitted to the parent matter more.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underwriting result | 1,214 | 1,157 | |||
| Core operating profit (company's measure) | 1,623 | 1,534 | |||
| Net income | 496 | 126 | |||
| EPS, diluted | 8.16 | 1.77 | |||
| Dividend per share | 21.79 | 21.36 | 20.34 | 19.37 | 18.45 |
| Operating return on equity | 54.4% | 34.8% | 26.6% |
What this means. Insurance revenue is not the company's total revenue: total revenue also includes fees and other customer income, making it £10,462 million in 2025.
What does an investor pay for L&G today?
The three P/E measures answer different questions. A P/E ratio compares the share price with earnings per share, but insurance earnings include estimates about contracts that may run for decades. IFRS 17 records expected profit for future insurance service and releases it as that service is provided. Reported profit can also include investment movements, restructuring and the gain from selling L&G’s non-retained US business. Core profit aims to show recurring performance more clearly, while forecast profit asks what may happen next.