ABF stock forecast
ABF’s weighted price is 1779.64 GBp in October 2027, a 5% total-return loss with dividends. It hinges on Primark converting expansion into cash.
Where could ABF’s shares go?
The forecast points to a small near-term loss followed by recovery. The weighted price is 1779.64 GBp in October 2027, a 5% total-return loss with dividends. It reaches 1978.11 GBp in October 2028, an 8% gain, and 2248.39 GBp in October 2029, a 25% gain.
The 2029 range is unusually wide for a mature retailer and food group. The bear case gives 1275.43 GBp, while the bull case gives 3887.59 GBp. Today’s price is 1942.50 GBp. The forecast assigns 30% to bear, 55% to base and 15% to bull, because the evidence supports recovery but also shows material Sugar and Primark risks.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 1278.69 (-32 %) | 1145.80 (-36 %) | 1275.43 (-28 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 1853.41 (-1 %) | 2086.37 (+14 %) | 2332.04 (+30 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 2511.04 (+33 %) | 3245.78 (+74 %) | 3887.59 (+111 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1779.64 (-5 %) | 1978.11 (+8 %) | 2248.39 (+25 %) |
What this means. The Weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a separate forecast that is guaranteed to happen.
What has to go right or wrong for ABF?
The forecast assigns 30% probability to the bear case, 55% to the base case and 15% to the bull case. The bear case combines weak Primark stores with heavy Sugar losses. The base case assumes gradual earnings recovery and valuation expansion only as execution becomes clearer. The bull case requires stronger store demand and faster Sugar recovery.
How much cash does ABF really make?
For 2025, cash from operations was £2,231m, but working capital tied up £95m. Capital spending and lease payments then reduced the amount available, leaving free cash flow of £638m. ABF’s own measure was £648m, because its definition makes different adjustments.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,231 | 2,874 | 1,654 | 1,153 | 1,413 |
| Of which, tied up in working capital | 95 | 216 | 729 | 43 | |
| − Capital spending | 1,099 | 1,124 | 997 | 680 | 551 |
| − Lease payments | 351 | 348 | 308 | 321 | 290 |
| = Free cash flow | 638 | 1,262 | 231 | 38 | 456 |
| = Real free cash flow | 620 | 1,231 | 213 | 19 | 439 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow does not always match ours because it uses its own rules, adding back some cash items and taking out others that we treat differently.
What does an investor pay for ABF today?
A price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says how much investors pay for each pound of annual profit. The trailing multiple uses the latest year’s earnings; the forward multiple uses expected earnings over the next year. A lower forward multiple therefore means analysts expect profit to rise. Imagine buying a shop for £100 when it earned £7 last year: that is about fourteen times earnings. If it is expected to earn £8 next year, the price has not changed but the multiple falls to about twelve and a half times. The forecast can be wrong because sugar profits move with prices, crops and energy costs.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 1942.50 |
| Market value (calculated) | 13,654.749185 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 13,651.749185 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.57x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.13x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.7% |
What this means. The enterprise value is slightly lower than the market value because the company has more cash than debt, reducing the effective price of buying the whole business.