NEXT stock forecast
At October 2029, NEXT's weighted price reaches 16512.87 GBp, a 14% gain including dividends. The forecast hinges on warehouse execution and cash conversion.
Where could NEXT's shares be by 2029?
NEXT's weighted outcome is modest over one year, but becomes positive by the third year. At October 2027, the weighted price is 14379.15 GBp, a 5% loss including dividends. At October 2028, it is 15324.14 GBp, a 4% gain. At October 2029, it reaches 16512.87 GBp, a 14% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 11431.07 (-24 %) | 10418.74 (-29 %) | 10078.22 (-29 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 14654.01 (-3 %) | 15450.29 (+5 %) | 16136.07 (+11 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 17308.37 (+15 %) | 21109.00 (+42 %) | 25592.37 (+74 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 14379.15 (-5 %) | 15324.14 (+4 %) | 16512.87 (+14 %) |
What has to go right for NEXT, and what could go wrong?
The bear case requires weak UK demand, lower overseas conversion and rising marketing, returns and delivery costs. Warehouse investment arrives before sufficient volume, cash conversion weakens and buybacks slow. The price falls to 11431.07 GBp in October 2027 and 10078.22 GBp in October 2029. Its 25% probability reflects credible margin pressure and downside from today's elevated valuation.
The bull case requires international growth without margin dilution. Repeat customers reduce acquisition costs, warehouse automation improves fulfilment economics and Total Platform develops repeatable service profit. The price reaches 17308.37 GBp in 2027 and 25592.37 GBp in 2029. Its 20% probability reflects the need for several execution gains while marketing and capital spending rise.
How much cash does NEXT really make?
Operating cash was £1,233.6 million in January 2026. After capital spending, lease payments and interest, free cash flow was £800.9 million. Rent must be included because a retailer still pays landlords even when accounting rules place much of the lease cost outside operating cash flow.
Employee share awards also have an economic cost. Deducting £43.1 million of stock pay produces real free cash flow of £757.8 million. This is an analytical measure, not a statutory subtotal, and the same cost must not be deducted twice.
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,233.6 | 1,133.9 | 1,120.3 | 798.8 | 971.4 |
| = Free cash flow | 800.9 | 718.5 | 696.8 | 321.5 | 441.7 |
| − Stock pay | 43.1 | 40.9 | 31.9 | 24.3 | 19.9 |
| = Real free cash flow | 757.8 | 677.6 | 664.9 | 297.2 | 421.8 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs from ours because it adds back some cash items and subtracts others that we treat differently, so the two numbers cannot be compared directly.
What does an investor pay for NEXT today?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 15,380.00 |
| Market value (calculated) | 18,403.2 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 19,293.0 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 19.56x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 17.46x |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because the business has more debt than cash, so it reflects the cost of buying the whole company.