United Utilities stock forecast
United Utilities’ weighted price is 1,711.90 GBp in October 2029. The United Utilities case hinges on AMP8 investment becoming delivered assets and returns without debt, penalties or dilution absorbing the benefit.
Where could United Utilities’ shares be by 2029?
The forecast puts the weighted price at 1466.27 GBp in October 2027. Including dividends, that is a 2% return. It reaches 1575.14 GBp in October 2028, equivalent to a 13% return. By October 2029, the weighted price is 1711.90 GBp, giving a 26% return.
The three-year range runs from 1023.09 GBp in the bear case to 2500.13 GBp in the bull case. Today’s price is 1495.00 GBp. The base case has the largest probability at 55%, against 25% for the bear case and 20% for the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 1108.56 (-22 %) | 1043.09 (-23 %) | 1023.09 (-20 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 1522.21 (+6 %) | 1623.47 (+16 %) | 1738.36 (+28 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1759.59 (+21 %) | 2107.27 (+49 %) | 2500.13 (+79 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1466.27 (+2 %) | 1575.14 (+13 %) | 1711.90 (+26 %) |
What has to go right for United Utilities, and what could go wrong?
The bear case assumes cost pressure, penalties and financing reduce EPS. The bull case assumes more investment is approved, delivered efficiently and supported by better service. FY26 capital spending of £1,492.1m exceeded operating cash of £1,381.9m, while net ODI penalties were about £35m. Those facts justify keeping both downside and execution risk visible.
How much cash does United Utilities really make?
Cash from operations was £1,381.9 million in FY26. The company then spent £1,492.1 million on capital investment. Real free cash flow, after capital spending, lease payments, interest already included in the cash-flow statement and stock-based pay, was negative £117.4 million. It was also negative £76.5 million in FY25.
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,381.9 | 918.1 | 745.1 | 787.5 | 934.4 |
| − Capital spending | 1,492.1 | 988.5 | 749.5 | 675.9 | 609.0 |
| − Interest paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow | -112.9 | -71.8 | -5.9 | 109.8 | 323.3 |
| − Stock pay | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| = Real free cash flow | -117.4 | -76.5 | -8.0 | 104.7 | 318.5 |
What does an investor pay today for United Utilities?
Cash flow explains why a profitable utility can still have a negative free-cash-flow yield. UU spent £1,525m on capital expenditure in FY26 and plans about £11.5bn across AMP8. Like renovating a house, the cash leaves today while the assets are expected to create value over many years.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 1,495.00 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -1.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -1.1% |