Take-Two Interactive stock forecast
The weighted forecast puts Take-Two Interactive's shares at $119.16 in October 2027. It hinges on GTA VI.
Where could Take-Two Interactive's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast puts value at $119.16 in October 2027. That represents a -42% return from $206.14. It puts value at $143.60 in October 2029, a -30% return. The bear case has 30% probability and the base case 52%. The bull case has 18%.
The forecast's central message is that TTWO's most likely share-price path remains below today's price. TTWO trades at $206.14 today. The weighted price is $119.16 in October 2027 and $130.82 in October 2028, including dividends. It reaches $143.60 in October 2029, a -30% return; the earlier returns are -42% and -37%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 30.23 (-85%) | 33.87 (-84%) | 37.93 (-82%) |
| Base | 52% | 123.24 (-40%) | 135.59 (-34%) | 149.14 (-28%) |
| Bull | 18% | 255.59 (+24%) | 278.64 (+35%) | 303.70 (+47%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 119.16 (-42%) | 130.82 (-37%) | 143.60 (-30%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it can be below the base case because the bear case is more likely than the bull case.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Take-Two Interactive?
The base case assumes FY2031 revenue of $8,900 million, about 6% annual growth from FY2026. A 15% EBIT margin then produces $1,335 million of EBIT. This requires GTA VI to launch and support continuing sales, with NBA 2K and mobile titles contributing, but leaves room for development costs and uneven cash conversion.
The bear case gives $7,000 million of revenue and a 7% margin. That produces $490 million of EBIT because GTA VI underperforms and the wider portfolio does not fully replace it. The bull case gives $10,500 million of revenue and a 20% margin, producing $2,100 million as durable online spending and scale improve operating leverage.
How much cash does Take-Two Interactive really make?
Free cash flow means operating cash flow after fixed-asset spending. Operating cash flow was $624.3 million. After $162.8 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $461.5 million. This recovery matters, but it occurred while Take-Two still reported a net loss of $298.2 million, so cash conversion of accounting profit is not a useful measure here.
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 624.3 | -45.2 | -16.1 | 1.1 | 258.0 |
| − Capital spending | 162.8 | 169.4 | 141.7 | 204.2 | 158.6 |
| = Free cash flow | 461.5 | -214.6 | -157.8 | -203.1 | 99.4 |
| − Stock pay | 305.3 | 324.0 | 335.6 | 317.8 | 183.0 |
| = Real free cash flow | 156.2 | -538.6 | -493.4 | -520.9 | -83.6 |
What this means. Stock pay uses no cash today, but we subtract it because giving employees shares reduces the owners’ share of the company.
What does an investor pay for Take-Two Interactive today?
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 206.14 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 20.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.4% |
What this means. The price-to-earnings ratio for the last 12 months is not meaningful because the company lost money during that period.