TotalEnergies stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: TotalEnergies' weighted forecast points to €89.78 by October 2027 and €99.02 by October 2029. It hinges on turning growth and integration into cash that funds both transition investment and shareholder returns.
Where could TotalEnergies shares go?
The weighted forecast points to a positive total return, but the possible outcomes remain unusually wide. The shares could reach €89.78 by October 2027, €88.96 by October 2028 and €99.02 by October 2029, producing returns including dividends of 16%, 19% and 37% from today’s €80.50. By October 2029, the bear-to-bull range is €44.06 to €182.95.
The base case receives half the probability because it best balances production growth with normalizing commodity earnings. The bear case receives 30%, while the bull case receives 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 49.47 (-34 %) | 41.34 (-40 %) | 44.06 (-33 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 97.48 (+26 %) | 91.02 (+22 %) | 98.43 (+36 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 130.98 (+67 %) | 155.24 (+102 %) | 182.95 (+142 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 89.78 (+16 %) | 88.96 (+19 %) | 99.02 (+37 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for TotalEnergies?
The base case assumes EBITDA of $47 billion in October 2027, $44 billion in October 2028 and $45 billion in October 2029. It includes some elevated 2026 earnings before prices and margins normalize, then allows project growth and cost control to support a modest recovery. The bear case gives $36 billion, $34 billion and $35 billion because weaker prices, LNG pressure and project delays outweigh production growth. The bull case gives $52 billion, $55 billion and $58 billion because projects arrive on schedule, LNG flexibility earns strong margins and Power returns improve. The range reflects EBITDA’s fall from $71.578 billion in 2022 to $40.555 billion in 2025, alongside management’s 3% production-growth target.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 47,000 (36,000 / 52,000) | 44,000 (34,000 / 55,000) | 45,000 (35,000 / 58,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 2,151 (2,185 / 2,132) | 2,096 (2,162 / 2,058) | 2,041 (2,139 / 1,984) |
| Dividends per share | 4.02 (3.81 / 4.10) | 4.22 (3.62 / 4.43) | 4.44 (3.62 / 4.78) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 5.30 (4.00 / 6.20) | 5.20 (3.80 / 6.50) | 5.30 (4.00 / 6.80) |
| Net debt | 14,159 (22,879 / 9,498) | 15,040 (29,051 / -490) | 13,407 (34,409 / -12,304) |
How much cash does TotalEnergies really make?
Capital spending was $16,953 million in 2025. Stock pay used another $585 million. The company’s own free-cash-flow count was $10,748 million, but asset sales contributed $3,644 million. Sale proceeds can strengthen cash without representing recurring operating power.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 27,343 | 30,854 | 40,679 | 47,367 | 30,410 |
| − Capital spending | 16,953 | 14,909 | 17,722 | 15,690 | 12,343 |
| − Interest paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| − Stock pay | 585 | 556 | 291 | 251 | 168 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 10,748 | 12,088 | 19,109 | 29,426 | 15,833 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is different from the rows above because it subtracts investments such as acquisitions and disposals but does not subtract lease repayments, which are not separately reported.
What does an investor pay for TotalEnergies today?
The trailing P/E is 11.3x, meaning investors pay €11.30 for each euro earned over the last year. The forward P/E is 8.1x, based on an estimate rather than completed results. At the current price, that implies forecast earnings of about €9.94 per share, versus roughly €7.12 in trailing earnings. The shares look cheaper only if the forecast arrives.