Thomson Reuters stock forecast

The weighted case for Thomson Reuters is CAD 164.84 in October 2029, a +18% return, with the bear case at 25%, the base at 55%, and the bull at 20%. Thomson Reuters hinges on paid AI adoption, renewals, cash generation, and the valuation multiple.

Where could Thomson Reuters's shares be by 2029?

The weighted price is CAD 136.23 in October 2027, a -7% return. It is CAD 164.84 in October 2029, an +18% return. The bear case has 25% probability, the base 55%, and the bull 20%.

What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Thomson Reuters?

Free cash flow after stock pay is the main operating assumption. The forecast starts from about US$1,980 million, using 2026 guidance of US$2,100 million less estimated stock pay. The latest quarter produced US$728 million before stock pay, while the historical measure rose from US$1,101 million in 2021 to US$1,842 million in 2025. The base case sets US$2,170 million for October 2027 and US$2,390 million for October 2028. It reaches US$2,630 million in October 2029. The bear case assumes weaker demand and rising AI costs; the bull case assumes paid upgrades, stronger renewals and workflow efficiency. Working-capital timing makes a down year plausible even though the recent trend has been upward.

The bear case requires AI trials to fail to convert into paid upgrades and renewals, while cheaper tools pressure pricing. Organic growth falls below guidance, margins stall as inference costs rise, and the multiple contracts. The case gives CAD 80.86 in October 2027. By October 2029, it gives CAD 70.28. Its probability is 25% because recurring revenue, retention and the five-year cash-flow record make sustained deterioration possible but not the central outcome.

How much cash does Thomson Reuters really make?

Stock compensation is another claim on shareholders. It is not a current cash payment, but it gives employees shares and can dilute other owners. After deducting US$111 million of stock pay, analytical “real free cash flow” was US$1,842 million, or 24.6% of revenue. That measure still improved on 2021, when it was 17.3%.

What does an investor pay today for Thomson Reuters?

The P/E ratio shows what investors pay for profit. A trailing P/E of 27.6x means paying C$27.60 for each C$1 of earnings from the previous twelve months. The forward P/E of 24.2x uses expected earnings instead, so it already assumes improvement. That expectation rests partly on recurring revenue, which made up 82% of revenue in the second quarter of 2026. A renewing Westlaw subscription is more predictable than a one-time sale, but predictable revenue still requires spending on software, editorial work and AI delivery.