Tourmaline stock forecast
The weighted scenario is C$67.17 in October 2027 and C$76.96 in October 2029, with bear, base and bull probabilities of 30%, 50% and 20%. It hinges on whether Tourmaline can convert its production and infrastructure pipeline into free cash flow without sacrificing balance-sheet flexibility.
Where could Tourmaline's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast points to modest gains, but with a wide range of outcomes. In the first year, the weighted price is C$67.17, a 5% total return including dividends. In the second, it reaches C$70.62, or 13%. By the third, it reaches C$76.96, or 27%.
The final-date bear outcome is C$49.81. The final-date bull outcome is C$115.26, compared with today’s C$66.17. The forecast assigns 30% to bear, 50% to base and 20% to bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 51.67 (-19 %) | 47.10 (-24 %) | 49.81 (-17 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 70.00 (+9 %) | 73.76 (+18 %) | 77.93 (+28 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 83.34 (+30 %) | 98.07 (+58 %) | 115.26 (+90 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 67.17 (+5 %) | 70.62 (+13 %) | 76.96 (+27 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Tourmaline?
The base case assumes EBITDA grows from C$3,468.5 million to C$4,026.6 million by October 2029. Deferred wells, stored gas and the 2027 production target support recovery, while weak gas margins and replacement capital limit it. The bear case falls to C$1,200 million in 2028 because gas prices weaken and costs rise. The bull case reaches C$6,906 million as export-linked prices, volumes and infrastructure benefits combine.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3,468 (1,768 / 4,992) | 3,720 (1,200 / 5,917) | 4,027 (1,774 / 6,906) |
| Shares (millions) | 384 (384 / 384) | 382 (386 / 380) | 380 (386 / 378) |
| Dividends per share | 2.10 (1.60 / 3.00) | 2.25 (1.60 / 3.50) | 2.40 (1.70 / 4.00) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 8.11 (12.09 / 6.64) | 7.87 (16.63 / 6.43) | 7.57 (11.98 / 6.29) |
| Net debt | 1,228 (1,506 / 1,142) | 1,079 (1,797 / 731) | 827 (1,993 / -120) |
How much cash does Tourmaline really make?
Free cash flow is what remains after operating cash pays for capital spending, lease payments, financing costs, and other chosen deductions. Tourmaline needs heavy reinvestment because existing wells decline; drilling, completions, facilities, and connections preserve or expand production. So cash from operations can be substantial while distributable cash is much smaller.
The supplied bridge lists no interest paid, but Tourmaline disclosed C$69.5 million of cash interest paid in 2025. Tourmaline’s own free-cash-flow measure also uses different additions and deductions, so its residual cannot be compared with the bridge without reading the definitions.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,387,019 | 2,729,780 | 4,406,092 | 4,692,731 | 2,847,117 |
| − Capital spending | 2,988,595 | 2,226,070 | 2,022,502 | 1,676,993 | 1,437,066 |
| − Interest paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow | 386,646 | 494,518 | 2,377,847 | 3,012,046 | 1,405,970 |
| − Stock pay | 69,527 | 63,857 | 50,298 | 28,731 | 16,448 |
| = Real free cash flow | 317,119 | 430,661 | 2,327,549 | 2,983,315 | 1,389,522 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs from ours because it excludes property purchases and sales and makes other adjustments, so the two numbers are not directly comparable.