Sysco stock forecast
The weighted case reaches $101.93 by October 2027, with 55% assigned to base, 25% to bear and 20% to bull. It hinges on profitable growth and cash generation withstanding Jetro’s financing, dilution and integration demands.
Where could Sysco's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted case reaches $101.93 by October 2027. That is a +27% return including dividends. By October 2029, it reaches $110.73. That is a +43% return including dividends. The forecast assigns 25% probability to the bear case. It assigns 55% to base and 20% to bull. The bear outcome is $73.05 in October 2029. The bull outcome is $163.71 in that month.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 74.80 (-6 %) | 73.32 (-5 %) | 73.05 (-3 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 105.41 (+31 %) | 107.26 (+36 %) | 108.60 (+41 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 126.28 (+56 %) | 143.88 (+81 %) | 163.71 (+108 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 101.93 (+27 %) | 106.10 (+35 %) | 110.73 (+43 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Sysco?
The bear case gives earnings of $2,303 million, $2,397 million and $2,544 million. It uses margins of 2.35%, 2.35% and 2.40% on revenue of $98,000 million, $102,000 million and $106,000 million. The reason is that operating income was nearly flat despite higher gross profit, leaving little room for weaker demand or cost overruns.
The bull case gives earnings of $2,950 million, $3,240 million and $3,538 million. It applies margins of 2.95%, 3.00% and 3.05% to revenue of $100,000 million, $108,000 million and $116,000 million. That requires local cases to exceed the 2.5% target, savings to materialize and Jetro’s expected accretion to outrun financing costs.
How much cash does Sysco really make?
Capital spending fell to $700 million in fiscal 2026. Free cash flow consequently reached $1,938 million, compared with $1,604 million in fiscal 2025. Sysco’s own measure also includes equipment and property-sale proceeds, while a more conservative view deducts stock-based pay.
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,638 | 2,510 | 2,989 | 2,868 | 1,791 |
| − Capital spending | 700 | 906 | 832 | 793 | 633 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,938 | 1,604 | 2,157 | 2,075 | 1,158 |
| − Stock pay | 118 | 93 | 104 | 96 | 122 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,820 | 1,511 | 2,053 | 1,979 | 1,036 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves some cash items out of its calculation, while our count includes them.
What does an investor pay for Sysco today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, compares the share price with earnings per share. Sysco’s trailing P/E is 22.5x, based on reported fiscal 2026 earnings of $3.66 per share. Its forward P/E is 16.2x, based on expected earnings of about $5.08 per share. The apparent improvement partly reflects a different denominator: fiscal 2027 guidance uses adjusted earnings, while the trailing figure is reported. Adjusted earnings exclude selected costs, but those costs may still consume cash.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 82.22 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.8% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.7% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it adds the company's debt and subtracts its cash to show what the whole business costs.